Durango
vs
Leones Negros UDG
Garuda Lions Prediction: Durango
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Durango vs Leones Negros UDG
| Probability | Durango | Draw | Leones Negros UDG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 24.4% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.5% | 24.4% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Durango
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.25.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG match preview
Durango and Leones Negros UDG are set to clash in the Liga de Expansión MX, with Durango holding a 52% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Durango stand at 1.90, while Leones Negros UDG is projected to score 1.25. Recent form shows Durango with three wins in their last five matches, while Leones Negros UDG has also secured three victories in the same timeframe.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Durango, which aligns with a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, Durango has one win, while Leones Negros UDG has two victories, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Durango and Leones Negros UDG expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Durango and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings
Durango
Leones Negros UDG
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 51.5% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Leones Negros UDG | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.7% |
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG stats
Durango and Leones Negros UDG recent form
| Durango |
WLWDWW |
| Leones Negros UDG |
WWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Durango and Leones Negros UDG season so far
Durango record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Leones Negros UDG record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
Durango vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Durango | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-08 | Leones Negros UDG | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-18 | Durango | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.