CA La Paz
vs
Tlaxcala
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.29.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala
| Probability | CA La Paz | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.9% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.9% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.29.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala match preview
CA La Paz is favored to win against Tlaxcala, with a 67% probability according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for CA La Paz stand at 2.71, while Tlaxcala is expected to score 1.29. Recent form shows CA La Paz with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Tlaxcala has also been consistent with three wins and two draws.
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance that both teams will score. In their last nine encounters, CA La Paz has secured four wins, Tlaxcala has one win, and there have been four draws, indicating a competitive history between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala attack and defence ratings
CA La Paz
Tlaxcala
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 66.9% |
| Draw | 17.8% | |
| Tlaxcala | 15.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.3% |
| No | 31.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 47.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.0% |
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala stats
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala season so far
CA La Paz record
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-3 |
| 2025-01-11 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-4 |
| 2024-07-27 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-27 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-04 | Tlaxcala | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-10 | CA La Paz | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.