Monarcas
vs
Venados FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monarcas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.33.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Monarcas vs Venados FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monarcas vs Venados FC
| Probability | Monarcas | Draw | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 25.0% | 27.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.9% | 25.0% | 27.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Monarcas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.33.
Monarcas vs Venados FC match preview
Monarcas faces Venados FC in a Liga de Expansión MX matchup, with Monarcas holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Venados FC's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Monarcas, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Monarcas and 1.33 for Venados FC. Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, as indicated by a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Monarcas has struggled with a record of L-W-L-D-D-L, while Venados FC has been more consistent, recording D-W-D-D-W-W. The head-to-head statistics reveal a balanced rivalry, with both teams each securing four wins and two draws in their last ten encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monarcas and Venados FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Monarcas and Venados FC attack and defence ratings
Monarcas
Venados FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Monarcas vs Venados FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monarcas | 47.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Venados FC | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monarcas win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 7.1% |
Monarcas vs Venados FC stats
Monarcas and Venados FC recent form
| Monarcas |
LWLDDL |
| Venados FC |
DWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monarcas and Venados FC season so far
Monarcas record
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Venados FC record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Monarcas vs Venados FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Venados FC | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Monarcas | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-05 | Venados FC | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-03 | Monarcas | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Venados FC | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-29 | Monarcas | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-4 |
| 2023-11-10 | Monarcas | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-20 | Venados FC | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-27 | Monarcas | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-30 | Venados FC | Monarcas | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.