Cancún
vs
Piratas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cancún
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.20.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Cancún vs Piratas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cancún vs Piratas
| Probability | Cancún | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.9% | 25.5% | 24.6% |
| Market | 34.5% | 27.5% | 38.0% |
| Final | 38.3% | 27.0% | 34.6% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -0.5% | -3.3% |
Why Cancún
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Cancún below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.6% per unit staked (our 38.3% × 2.78 − 1).
Cancún vs Piratas match preview
Cancún faces Piratas in an upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, with Cancún holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 38% compared to Piratas' 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Cancún, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Cancún stand at 1.78, while Piratas is projected to score 1.20.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Cancún recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Piratas has two wins, one draw, and two losses. The model also indicates a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cancún and Piratas expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Cancún and Piratas attack and defence ratings
Cancún
Piratas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Cancún vs Piratas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 38.3% | 2.61 | +3.8% | 2.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cancún | 38.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Piratas | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cancún win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 50.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Cancún vs Piratas stats
Cancún and Piratas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cancún and Piratas season so far
Cancún record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cancún vs Piratas head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Piratas | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cancún vs Piratas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.5%, draw 27.5%, away 38.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.28 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.28 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.29 | 2.52 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .