Piratas
vs
Cancún
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Piratas vs Cancún overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Cancún
| Probability | Piratas | Draw | Cancún |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.0% | 25.2% | 23.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Piratas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.18.
Piratas vs Cancún match preview
Piratas and Cancún are set to clash in the Liga de Expansión MX, with kickoff scheduled for November 9, 2026. According to our model, Piratas hold a 51% probability of winning, while Cancún has a 24% chance, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Piratas, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Piratas are 1.81, compared to Cancún's 1.18, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Piratas have recorded a draw, two wins, a loss, and another win in their last six matches, while Cancún has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same period. Notably, in their last head-to-head encounter, Cancún emerged victorious, with Piratas yet to secure a win against them. The model suggests a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Piratas and Cancún expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Piratas and Cancún attack and defence ratings
Piratas
Cancún
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Piratas vs Cancún markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 51.0% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Cancún | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 29.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 49.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Piratas vs Cancún stats
Piratas and Cancún recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piratas and Cancún season so far
Piratas record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cancún record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas vs Cancún head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Piratas | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.