Piratas
vs
CA La Paz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.46.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Piratas is the favourite, not a value bet.
Piratas vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs CA La Paz
| Probability | Piratas | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 24.4% | 29.1% |
| Market | 54.9% | 23.5% | 21.7% |
| Final | 52.8% | 23.7% | 23.5% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.2% | +1.9% |
Why Piratas
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.46.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 52.8% × 1.71 − 1).
Piratas vs CA La Paz match preview
Piratas are set to face CA La Paz in their upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match. According to our model, Piratas have a 53% probability of winning, while both a draw and a CA La Paz victory are estimated at 24%. The expected goals for Piratas stand at 1.87, compared to CA La Paz's 1.46. Recent form shows Piratas with three draws followed by two wins and a loss, while CA La Paz has been more consistent with four wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Piratas, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams scoring is projected at 66%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Piratas and CA La Paz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Piratas and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
Piratas
CA La Paz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Piratas vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 52.8% | 1.89 | -2.1% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 52.8% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| CA La Paz | 23.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.9% |
| No | 34.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Piratas vs CA La Paz stats
Piratas and CA La Paz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piratas and CA La Paz season so far
Piratas record
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CA La Paz record
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Piratas vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | CA La Paz | Piratas | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Piratas vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 23.5%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.94 | 4.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.94 | 4.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.08 | 4.33 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.00 |