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Liga de Expansión MX · ·Semi-finals

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas

Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones Negros UDG

2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.13.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Leones Negros UDG

Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

Leones Negros UDG 55%
Draw 24%
Monarcas 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Chance Leones Negros UDG wins
55%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
59%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeones Negros UDGDrawMonarcas
Model55.3%23.9%20.8%
Market———
Final55.3%23.9%20.8%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Leones Negros UDG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.13.

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas match preview

Leones Negros UDG enters the match against Monarcas with a 55% probability of winning, while Monarcas has a 21% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Leones Negros UDG, with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 59% probability for that outcome, and there is also a 59% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.

In terms of recent form, Leones Negros UDG has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six matches. Monarcas, on the other hand, has also experienced inconsistencies, with three wins, two losses, and one draw in their recent outings. Historically, Leones Negros UDG has dominated their last ten encounters, winning seven times compared to Monarcas' three victories.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leones Negros ↓ / Monarcas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 6% 2 9% 10% 6% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas expected goals

Leones Negros UDG 1.95
Monarcas 1.13

Total expected goals: 3.08

Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas attack and defence ratings

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Monarcas

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Semi-finals fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leones Negros UDG 55.3% 1.81 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.4% 1.68 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.1% 1.69 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leones Negros UDG55.3%
Draw23.9%
Monarcas20.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.4%
Under 2.540.6%
Both teams to scoreYes59.1%
No40.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.2%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)44.7%
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win33.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.2%
2-19.9%
2-08.7%
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Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas stats

Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas recent form

newest first
Leones Negros UDG WLWWLD
Monarcas WWLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leones Negros UDG and Monarcas season so far

league record

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.

Monarcas record

  • They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Leones Negros UDG wins 0Draws 3Monarcas wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-20MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2026-04-05Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-10-26MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2025-05-11Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-05-04MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-03-21Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-10-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2024-04-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2023-11-19Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2023-11-16MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leones Negros UDG vs Monarcas odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.

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Prediction snapshot 1 Leones Negros UDG Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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