Leones Negros UDG
vs
Tepatitlán
Garuda Lions Prediction: Leones Negros UDG
4 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.02 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán
| Probability | Leones Negros UDG | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 91.6% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 91.6% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Leones Negros UDG
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 4.02 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán match preview
Leones Negros UDG enters this match against Tepatitlán with a strong probability of winning at 92%, while Tepatitlán's chances sit at just 2%. The expected goals for Leones Negros UDG is 4.02 compared to Tepatitlán's 0.67, indicating a significant disparity in offensive capabilities. Recent form shows Leones Negros UDG with two wins in their last five matches, while Tepatitlán has struggled, recording four losses in their last five outings.
Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have resulted in no wins for either side, with two draws. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 4-0 in favor of Leones Negros UDG, with an 85% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Both teams scoring stands at 48%, suggesting that while Leones Negros UDG is favored to dominate, Tepatitlán may still find opportunities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.69
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings
Leones Negros UDG
Tepatitlán
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.7% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.8% | 1.02 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones Negros UDG | 91.6% |
| Draw | 6.1% | |
| Tepatitlán | 2.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 97.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 93.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 8.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones Negros UDG win | 80.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11.2% | |
| Loss | 8.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 4-0 | 10.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.0% | |
| 5-0 | 8.1% |
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán stats
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán recent form
| Leones Negros UDG |
WLDWWL |
| Tepatitlán |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán season so far
Leones Negros UDG record
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Leones Negros UDG | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Tepatitlán | Leones Negros UDG | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.