Durango
vs
Tapatío
Garuda Lions Prediction: Durango
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Durango vs Tapatío overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Durango vs Tapatío
| Probability | Durango | Draw | Tapatío |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.9% | 27.1% | 22.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.9% | 27.1% | 22.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Durango
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Durango vs Tapatío match preview
Durango enters this match against Tapatío with a strong probability of winning at 56%, while Tapatío stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Durango, which has a 12% likelihood. Durango's expected goals sit at 1.71, indicating a solid offensive performance, while Tapatío's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.87.
In terms of recent form, Durango has recorded a sequence of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. Conversely, Tapatío has struggled, with only one win and four losses in their last six games, alongside a draw. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 49% chance for both teams to score and a 48% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Durango and Tapatío expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Durango and Tapatío attack and defence ratings
Durango
Tapatío
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Durango vs Tapatío markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 50.9% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Tapatío | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Durango vs Tapatío stats
Durango and Tapatío recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Durango and Tapatío season so far
Durango record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Tapatío record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Durango vs Tapatío head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-12 | Durango | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-5 |
| 2022-06-30 | Tapatío | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.