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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 10

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán

4 – 1 Full time

3′V. Moragrega
16′S. Zamora
20′J. Cruz
22′V. Moragrega
26′J. Cruz
36′D. Villaseca
40′J. Sanchez
44′N. Martinez
45′C. Soldati
46′J. UribeL. Jimenez
46′N. Martinez
46′N. Martinez
46′V. MoragregaD. Zamarripa
56′D. VillasecaG. Garcia
62′J. GodinezB. Casas
62′V. ValenciaI. Contreras
63′L. EgurrolaG. Olvera
69′S. ZamoraL. Ledesma
69′A. MorenoF. Sanguinetti
70′A. GaticaD. Rodriguez
85′G. GutierrezR. Nuno
87′G. Garcia
90′F. Sanguinetti

Estadio Akron, ZapopanReferee: J. M. Negrete Preciado

Tapatío 63%
Draw 20%
Tepatitlán 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs Tepatitlán

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTapatíoDrawTepatitlán
Model73.2%16.2%10.6%
Market60.0%21.1%18.9%
Final63.3%19.9%16.8%
Edge+3.3%-1.2%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Tapatío

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.01.
  • The market prices Tapatío below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tapatío ↓ / Tepatitlán → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 7% 2 9% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 11% 11% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Tapatío and Tepatitlán expected goals

Tapatío 2.76
Tepatitlán 1.01

Total expected goals: 3.77

Tapatío and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings

Tapatío

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Tepatitlán

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 1.44 +44%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán: result vs prediction

Tapatío 4 – 1 Tepatitlán

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 10 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tapatío 63.3% 1.58 +3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.5% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.2% 1.66 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.2% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Tapatío win 53.4% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tapatío63.3%
Draw19.9%
Tepatitlán16.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.5%
Under 2.527.5%
Both teams to scoreYes60.2%
No39.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.2%
12 (either side)80.1%
X2 (draw or away)36.7%
Handicap -1Tapatío win53.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss26.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.9%
2-08.8%
3-18.2%

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán stats

Tapatío and Tepatitlán recent form

newest first
Tapatío LLWLLD
Tepatitlán DWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tapatío and Tepatitlán going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tapatío record

  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.

Tepatitlán record

  • They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Tapatío wins 3Draws 5Tepatitlán wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-24TepatitlánTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-08-17TapatíoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2025-02-15TepatitlánTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2024-11-11TapatíoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-11-08TepatitlánTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-09-01TapatíoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2024-03-23TepatitlánTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX0-4
2023-09-25TapatíoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2023-03-26TapatíoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2022-09-24TepatitlánTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tapatío vs Tepatitlán odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.0%, draw 21.1%, away 18.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.48 4.33 5.03
Bet365 1.55 4.75 4.75
BetVictor 1.53 4.33 5.00
Betano 1.53 4.35 4.75
Betfair 1.47 4.40 5.00
Dafabet 1.57 4.40 4.80
Marathonbet 1.47 4.33 4.85
Pinnacle 1.57 4.27 5.36
SBO 1.51 4.00 4.25
William Hill 1.50 4.20 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.52 ▲ +0.02
X 4.33 ▲ +0.32
2 4.82 ▼ -0.18

7 snapshots recorded, from .