Tapatío
vs
Tepatitlán
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tapatío
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs Tepatitlán
| Probability | Tapatío | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.6% | 14.0% | 7.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 78.6% | 14.0% | 7.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Tapatío
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 0.85.
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán match preview
Tapatío enters this match against Tepatitlán with a strong probability of winning at 79%, reflecting their recent form of L-W-L-L-D-W. They have an expected goals figure of 2.91, suggesting a solid offensive performance, with a 73% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-0, occurring at a rate of 10%.
In contrast, Tepatitlán has a lower probability of victory at 7% and has struggled in recent matches, with a record of W-L-L-L-L-W. Their expected goals stand at 0.85, indicating challenges in scoring. Historically, Tepatitlán has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both. Overall, while Tapatío is favored, the match could present surprises given the head-to-head results.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tapatío and Tepatitlán expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.75
Tapatío and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings
Tapatío
Tepatitlán
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tapatío win | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 78.6% |
| Draw | 14.0% | |
| Tepatitlán | 7.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tapatío win | 59.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 21.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 3-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán stats
Tapatío and Tepatitlán recent form
| Tapatío |
LWLLDW |
| Tepatitlán |
WLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tapatío and Tepatitlán season so far
Tapatío record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Tapatío vs Tepatitlán head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Tepatitlán | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Tapatío | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.