Tapatío
vs
CA La Paz
2 – 4 Full time
| 3′ | A. Robles | ||
| 5′ | D. Villaseca | ||
| 11′ | F. Illescas | ||
| 15′ | S. Esparza | ||
| 32′ | M. Barragan | ||
| 43′ | C. Robles | ||
| 45′ | V. Moragrega | ||
| 51′ | M. Barragan | ||
| 57′ | U. Zurita Jimenez | ||
| 60′ | U. Jaimes | ||
| 67′ | M. GarciaO. Millan | ||
| 67′ | D. DelgadilloD. Covarrubias | ||
| 67′ | G. GarciaG. Gutierrez | ||
| 67′ | A. RoblesE. J. Alaffita Garcia | ||
| 67′ | M. BarraganJ. Ferrer | ||
| 68′ | D. Villaseca | ||
| 76′ | J. AlonzoI. Larios | ||
| 76′ | J. UribeR. Nuno | ||
| 76′ | V. MoragregaL. Torres | ||
| 80′ | D. VillasecaL. Ledesma | ||
| 82′ | F. Illescas | ||
| 87′ | R. Parra |
Tapatío vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs CA La Paz
| Probability | Tapatío | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 25.6% | 33.2% |
| Market | 33.9% | 25.2% | 40.9% |
| Final | 35.7% | 25.3% | 38.9% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +0.1% | -1.9% |
Why CA La Paz
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tapatío and CA La Paz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Tapatío and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
Tapatío
CA La Paz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz: result vs prediction
Tapatío 2 – 4 CA La Paz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tapatío vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 38.9% | 2.57 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 35.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| CA La Paz | 38.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Tapatío vs CA La Paz stats
Tapatío and CA La Paz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tapatío and CA La Paz going into this match
Tapatío record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
CA La Paz record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-02 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-07 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-29 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-13 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 25.2%, away 40.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.48 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.48 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.69 | 2.35 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .