Tapatío
vs
CA La Paz
Garuda Lions Prediction: CA La Paz
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Tapatío vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs CA La Paz
| Probability | Tapatío | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.2% | 25.6% | 33.2% |
| Market | 33.9% | 25.2% | 40.9% |
| Final | 35.7% | 25.3% | 38.9% |
| Edge | +7.2% | +0.4% | -7.6% |
Why CA La Paz
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz match preview
Tapatío faces CA La Paz in what promises to be a competitive Liga de Expansión MX match. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Tapatío at 35% to win, CA La Paz slightly ahead at 39%, and a draw at 25%. The expected goals suggest Tapatío will score 1.67 while CA La Paz is projected to net 1.49. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of CA La Paz, which aligns with the high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Recent form shows Tapatío with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-D-W, while CA La Paz has been more consistent, winning four of their last six matches. The head-to-head record is evenly matched, with both teams having three wins each and two draws in their last eight encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tapatío and CA La Paz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Tapatío and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
Tapatío
CA La Paz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tapatío vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 38.9% | 2.57 | -7.6% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tapatío | 35.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| CA La Paz | 38.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 66.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Tapatío vs CA La Paz stats
Tapatío and CA La Paz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tapatío and CA La Paz season so far
Tapatío record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
CA La Paz record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-02 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-07 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2023-01-29 | Tapatío | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-13 | CA La Paz | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tapatío vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 25.2%, away 40.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.48 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.48 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.69 | 2.35 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.42 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .