Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 12
Dorados
vs
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 – 3 Full time
| 7′ | B. Gamboa | ||
| 10′ | K. Gonzalez | ||
| 31′ | E. Gutierrez | ||
| 38′ | B. Gamboa | ||
| 40′ | E. Sanchez | ||
| 46′ | O. CoronelL. Vargas | ||
| 46′ | G. PadillaD. Guajardo | ||
| 46′ | E. GutierrezC. Leyva | ||
| 47′ | D. Guajardo | ||
| 59′ | K. GonzalezC. Valdivia | ||
| 59′ | A. A. Saavedra NevarezJ. Diaz | ||
| 59′ | D. ValdezF. Samano Salgado | ||
| 61′ | F. ContrerasB. Ordorica | ||
| 63′ | F. Pena | ||
| 66′ | D. GuajardoB. Sanchez | ||
| 70′ | I. RamirezC. Leon | ||
| 86′ | B. GamboaE. Villegas | ||
| 90′ | E. Sanchez | ||
| 90′ | B. Ordorica | ||
| 90′ | C. Valdivia | ||
| 90′ | C. Castro |
Dorados
61%
Draw
22%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
17%
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Probability | Dorados | Draw | Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.1% | 21.8% | 17.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.1% | 21.8% | 17.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dorados
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals
Dorados
2.16
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1.08
Total expected goals: 3.25
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo attack and defence ratings
Dorados
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.23 +23%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Attack
0.76 -24%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: result vs prediction
Dorados 1 – 3 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Dorados win | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 61.1% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dorados win | 39.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 38.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo stats
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form
| Dorados |
LLDDWW |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo going into this match
Dorados record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.