Dorados
vs
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dorados
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Probability | Dorados | Draw | Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.4% | 21.7% | 17.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 61.4% | 21.7% | 17.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Dorados
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo match preview
Dorados will face Cruz Azul Hidalgo in the Liga de Expansión MX, with a kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a victory for Dorados, assigning them a 61% probability of winning, while Cruz Azul Hidalgo has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Dorados, with a 10% probability.
In terms of offensive output, Dorados is expected to score 2.17 goals, while Cruz Azul Hidalgo is forecasted to net 1.08 goals. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a 59% probability. Recent form shows Dorados with mixed results, while Cruz Azul Hidalgo has struggled, with only one win in their last five matches.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo attack and defence ratings
Dorados
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Dorados win | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 61.4% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dorados win | 39.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 38.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo stats
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form
| Dorados |
LLDDWW |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo season so far
Dorados record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.