Tlaxcala
vs
Piratas
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piratas
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Tlaxcala vs Piratas overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs Piratas
| Probability | Tlaxcala | Draw | Piratas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 26.3% | 34.5% |
| Market | 26.2% | 27.3% | 46.5% |
| Final | 29.4% | 27.1% | 43.5% |
| Edge | +13.0% | -1.0% | -12.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tlaxcala vs Piratas match preview
In the upcoming Liga de Expansión MX match, Tlaxcala will face Piratas on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 31% for a Tlaxcala victory, while Piratas holds a 42% chance of winning, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at an 8% probability.
Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches, with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score. Recent form shows Tlaxcala with a record of D-W-L-W-D-W, while Piratas has W-L-W-D-W-D. Expected goals are calculated at 1.57 for Tlaxcala and 1.47 for Piratas, reflecting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tlaxcala and Piratas expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Tlaxcala and Piratas attack and defence ratings
Tlaxcala
Piratas
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tlaxcala vs Piratas markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piratas | 43.5% | 2.30 | -12.0% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 29.4% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Piratas | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.9% |
| No | 38.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piratas win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 65.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Tlaxcala vs Piratas stats
Tlaxcala and Piratas recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tlaxcala and Piratas season so far
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piratas record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tlaxcala vs Piratas head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tlaxcala vs Piratas odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.2%, draw 27.3%, away 46.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.56 | 3.28 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.25 | 1.95 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.02 |
| Marathonbet | 3.28 | 3.22 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | 3.34 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 3.12 | 2.98 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .