Garuda Lions
Today
Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 12

Tlaxcala vs Piratas

4 – 2 Full time

18′D. Lajud Martinez
23′A. Lopez
32′D. Cruz
40′E. Robles
45′H. Hernandez
48′A. Lopez
48′A. Lopez
49′G. LopezU. Garcia
52′E. Robles
68′Christian
68′A. IniestraE. Hernandez
68′I. GoveaC. Gonzalez
70′O. SotoJ. Venegas
70′R. GonzalezC. Fernandez
76′R. Palomares
77′D. Lajud MartinezI. Doumbouya
78′B. FigueroaE. Vargas
84′E. GarciaJ. Freyfeld
84′D. AlvarezD. Hernandez
88′M. A. Trejo CastroR. E. Camacho Lastra
88′Christian
90′B. Flores
90′Christian

Estadio Tlahuicole, TlaxcalaReferee: E. L. Sanchez M.

Tlaxcala 29%
Draw 27%
Piratas 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tlaxcala vs Piratas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs Piratas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTlaxcalaDrawPiratas
Model38.9%26.4%34.8%
Market26.0%27.2%46.7%
Final29.3%27.0%43.7%
Edge+3.2%-0.2%-3.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tlaxcala ↓ / Piratas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Tlaxcala and Piratas expected goals

Tlaxcala 1.56
Piratas 1.47

Total expected goals: 3.03

Tlaxcala and Piratas attack and defence ratings

Tlaxcala

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Piratas

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tlaxcala vs Piratas: result vs prediction

Tlaxcala 4 – 2 Piratas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Tlaxcala vs Piratas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Piratas 43.7% 2.29 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.3% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.9% 1.62 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.2% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tlaxcala29.3%
Draw27.0%
Piratas43.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%
Both teams to scoreYes61.9%
No38.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.3%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)70.7%
Handicap -1Piratas win16.9%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss65.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-18.7%
1-28.1%

Tlaxcala vs Piratas stats

Tlaxcala and Piratas recent form

newest first
Tlaxcala DWLWDW
Piratas WLWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tlaxcala and Piratas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tlaxcala record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Piratas record

  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tlaxcala vs Piratas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Tlaxcala vs Piratas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.0%, draw 27.2%, away 46.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.56 3.28 1.92
Bet365 3.70 3.40 2.00
BetVictor 3.50 3.50 1.95
Betano 3.65 3.25 1.95
Betfair 3.50 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 3.40 3.40 2.07
Marathonbet 3.48 3.28 1.90
Pinnacle 3.77 3.50 2.00
SBO 3.17 3.07 1.97
William Hill 3.30 3.30 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.50 ▲ +0.27
X 3.35 ▲ +0.05
2 1.95 ▼ -0.11

13 snapshots recorded, from .