Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 10
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
vs
CA La Paz
1 – 3 Full time
| 3′ | A. Robles | ||
| 33′ | A. Tecpanecatl | ||
| 35′ | U. Zurita Jimenez | ||
| 37′ | Andrey Marcos | ||
| 44′ | E. Torres | ||
| 46′ | T. Jaimes RodriguezB. Fadika | ||
| 46′ | L. JeffusD. Ayala | ||
| 54′ | K. Alvarez | ||
| 61′ | F. IllescasO. Millan | ||
| 72′ | C. RoblesD. Hernandez | ||
| 73′ | U. JaimesJ. Ferrer | ||
| 73′ | O. Paz VasquezC. Rodas | ||
| 74′ | J. BustosL. Gutierrez | ||
| 79′ | U. Zurita Jimenez | ||
| 80′ | O. BallesterosS. Vizarretea | ||
| 83′ | B. Fadika | ||
| 84′ | J. Ferrer | ||
| 85′ | M. BarraganI. Larios | ||
| 90′ | O. Millan |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28%
Draw
26%
CA La Paz
46%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz
| Probability | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | CA La Paz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.4% | 49.4% |
| Market | 29.3% | 25.2% | 45.4% |
| Final | 28.0% | 25.5% | 46.4% |
| Edge | -5.2% | +1.2% | +4.0% |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices CA La Paz below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and CA La Paz expected goals
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.12
CA La Paz
1.68
Total expected goals: 2.80
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack
0.73 -27%
Defence
1.17 +17%
CA La Paz
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz: result vs prediction
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 – 3 CA La Paz
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 46.4% | 2.15 | +4.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 28.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| CA La Paz | 46.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.9% |
| No | 44.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 9.1% |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz stats
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and CA La Paz recent form
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
LWLDLW |
| CA La Paz |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and CA La Paz going into this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
CA La Paz record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
0Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
3Draws
6CA La Paz wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | CA La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-19 | CA La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | CA La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-2 |
| 2024-03-23 | CA La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-20 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2023-03-24 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-30 | CA La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CA La Paz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 25.2%, away 45.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.17 | 3.54 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.70 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.54 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 3.73 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 2.94 | 3.38 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.10 ▲ +0.05
X
3.60 ▲ +0.02
2
2.00 —
10 snapshots recorded, from .