CA La Paz
vs
Correcaminos Uat
3 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | C. Robles | ||
| 18′ | A. Robles | ||
| 34′ | M. Barragan | ||
| 40′ | O. Islas | ||
| 52′ | A. Robles | ||
| 53′ | O. Perez | ||
| 56′ | E. Torres | ||
| 59′ | F. Illescas | ||
| 60′ | T. Sandoval | ||
| 64′ | C. Robles | ||
| 66′ | W. GuzmanD. Mina | ||
| 74′ | F. IllescasO. Millan | ||
| 74′ | A. RoblesE. J. Alaffita Garcia | ||
| 78′ | B. MendozaJ. Estopier | ||
| 79′ | J. AlonzoH. Torres | ||
| 79′ | M. BarraganJ. Ferrer | ||
| 86′ | U. Zurita JimenezJ. Daccarett | ||
| 86′ | T. SandovalJ. Cantu | ||
| 86′ | G. MorenoA. Di Pippa |
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat
| Probability | CA La Paz | Draw | Correcaminos Uat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.6% | 16.9% | 12.5% |
| Market | 57.0% | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| Final | 60.4% | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +13.6% | -5.2% | -8.4% |
Why CA La Paz
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.74 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices CA La Paz below the model: +13.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CA La Paz and Correcaminos Uat expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
CA La Paz and Correcaminos Uat attack and defence ratings
CA La Paz
Correcaminos Uat
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat: result vs prediction
CA La Paz 3 – 1 Correcaminos Uat
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 60.4% | 1.66 | +13.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 60.4% |
| Draw | 20.8% | |
| Correcaminos Uat | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win | 50.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 29.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 3-1 | 8.1% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat stats
CA La Paz and Correcaminos Uat recent form
| CA La Paz |
DWWDWW |
| Correcaminos Uat |
DLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CA La Paz and Correcaminos Uat going into this match
CA La Paz record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Correcaminos Uat record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Correcaminos Uat | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-09 | CA La Paz | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | CA La Paz | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-09 | Correcaminos Uat | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 5-1 |
| 2024-03-18 | CA La Paz | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-10 | Correcaminos Uat | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-27 | Correcaminos Uat | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-08 | CA La Paz | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-1 |
| 2022-10-06 | Correcaminos Uat | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
CA La Paz vs Correcaminos Uat odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 22.1%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.15 | 4.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.05 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.15 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.42 | 4.67 |
| SBO | 1.63 | 3.79 | 3.69 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .