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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 9

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

2 – 0 Full time

23′R. del Campo
40′D. Aguilar
41′U. Torres
44′R. del Campo
45′J. Aguayo
59′D. Zamora
65′R. del CampoA. Flores
65′D. AguilarA. Andrade
65′O. GilJ. Perez
65′J. BrigidoJ. Cazares
70′M. DominguezJ. Martinez
70′M. RodriguezE. Castellanos
73′M. Nambo
76′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoM. Valenzuela
76′L. RazoK. Loera
79′M. Valenzuela
81′M. NamboJ. Van Rankin
83′J. Martinez
88′O. Gonzalez
90′S. A. HernandezU. Meza

Estadio Morelos, MoreliaReferee: F. Cruz Garatachea

Monarcas 54%
Draw 25%
Leones Negros UDG 21%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonarcasDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model53.2%24.7%22.2%
Market54.7%24.9%20.4%
Final54.3%24.8%20.8%
Edge-1.6%-0.2%+1.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Monarcas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.15.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monarcas ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 12% 6% 2 9% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Monarcas 1.87
Leones Negros UDG 1.15

Total expected goals: 3.02

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Monarcas

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG: result vs prediction

Monarcas 2 – 0 Leones Negros UDG

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 9 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monarcas 54.3% 1.84 -1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.0% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.8% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monarcas54.3%
Draw24.8%
Leones Negros UDG20.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%
Both teams to scoreYes58.8%
No41.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.2%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)45.7%
Handicap -1Monarcas win31.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss46.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.8%
2-08.6%

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Monarcas WWWLWW
Leones Negros UDG DWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monarcas and Leones Negros UDG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Monarcas record

  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Monarcas wins 1Draws 7Leones Negros UDG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-10-26MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2025-05-11Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-05-04MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-03-21Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-10-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2024-04-05MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX0-2
2023-11-19Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2023-11-16MonarcasLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2023-09-02Leones Negros UDGMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 24.4%, away 21.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.67 3.38 4.76
Bet365 1.75 3.80 4.33
BetVictor 1.67 3.90 4.20
Betano 1.72 3.70 4.15
Betfair 1.62 4.00 4.20
Marathonbet 1.65 3.38 4.65
Pinnacle 1.70 3.54 5.39
SBO 1.62 3.62 3.89
William Hill 1.67 3.80 4.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 —
X 3.67 ▲ +0.31
2 4.49 ▼ -0.22

10 snapshots recorded, from .