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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 8

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz

2 – 2 Full time

17′J. Brigido
34′A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
37′C. Robles
45′J. Escalante
46′O. MillanM. Garcia
55′M. Barragan
60′J. Marchand
61′J. MarchandA. Carreon
61′J. BrigidoJ. Perez
63′J. Alonzo
72′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoM. Valenzuela
72′O. GilJ. Cazares
73′U. JaimesJ. Ferrer
73′F. IllescasH. Torres
78′M. Valenzuela
80′A. RoblesD. Hernandez
81′H. Torres
82′L. RazoK. Loera
82′C. Robles
83′Y. Del Aguila
89′M. BarraganI. Larios
90′J. Perez

Estadio Jalisco, GuadalajaraReferee: E. Miranda

Leones Negros UDG 43%
Draw 25%
CA La Paz 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeones Negros UDGDrawCA La Paz
Model47.7%25.9%26.4%
Market42.0%25.3%32.7%
Final43.4%25.5%31.1%
Edge+5.7%+0.5%-6.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Leones Negros UDG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.24.
  • The market prices Leones Negros UDG below the model: +5.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leones Negros ↓ / CA La Paz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz expected goals

Leones Negros UDG 1.73
CA La Paz 1.24

Total expected goals: 2.97

Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.90 -10%

CA La Paz

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz: result vs prediction

Leones Negros UDG 2 – 2 CA La Paz

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 8 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leones Negros UDG 43.4% 2.30 +5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.0% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.6% 1.68 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.5% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.3% 1.91 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leones Negros UDG43.4%
Draw25.5%
CA La Paz31.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%
Both teams to scoreYes59.6%
No40.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.9%
12 (either side)74.5%
X2 (draw or away)56.6%
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win26.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss52.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
2-19.5%
1-07.8%

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz stats

Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz recent form

newest first
Leones Negros UDG WDWWLW
CA La Paz WWDWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz going into this match

league record before kick-off

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

CA La Paz record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Leones Negros UDG wins 2Draws 5CA La Paz wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-05CA La PazLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2025-09-14Leones Negros UDGCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2025-03-29CA La PazLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2024-10-13Leones Negros UDGCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2024-05-06Leones Negros UDGCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2024-05-03CA La PazLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-03-28Leones Negros UDGCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-4
2023-08-23CA La PazLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX3-0
2023-02-24Leones Negros UDGCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX3-2
2022-07-14CA La PazLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 25.3%, away 31.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.02 3.80 3.25
1xBet 2.17 3.56 2.79
888Sport 2.05 3.50 3.00
Bet365 2.30 3.60 2.88
BetVictor 2.25 3.75 2.70
Betano 2.12 3.90 2.75
Betfair 1.95 3.75 3.00
Dafabet 2.02 3.60 3.25
Marathonbet 2.15 3.56 2.74
Pinnacle 2.32 3.77 2.82
SBO 1.94 3.26 2.86
Unibet 1.98 3.45 3.25
William Hill 2.20 3.60 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.17 ▲ +0.18
X 3.60 ▲ +0.10
2 2.79 ▼ -0.42

14 snapshots recorded, from .