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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG

1 – 3 Full time

6′O. Gil
40′M. Alvarado
46′L. LedesmaG. Garcia
46′R. NunoV. Moragrega
46′D. VillasecaJ. Uribe
56′A. Chavez
63′J. Marchand
65′J. BrigidoJ. Perez
68′A. ChavezL. Jimenez
75′A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
76′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoU. Meza
76′M. AlvaradoA. Carreon
80′S. A. Hernandez
82′O. GilJ. Cazares
82′L. RazoK. Loera
84′L. CalderonD. Latorre
90′V. Moragrega

Estadio Akron, ZapopanReferee: J. M. Negrete Preciado

Tapatío 45%
Draw 27%
Leones Negros UDG 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTapatíoDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model46.3%25.3%28.4%
Market44.0%27.2%28.8%
Final44.5%26.7%28.7%
Edge+2.3%-1.9%-0.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Tapatío

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.35.
  • The market prices Tapatío below the model: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tapatío ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Tapatío 1.77
Leones Negros UDG 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.12

Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Tapatío

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG: result vs prediction

Tapatío 1 – 3 Leones Negros UDG

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tapatío 44.5% 2.25 +2.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.6% 1.60 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.3% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.7% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tapatío44.5%
Draw26.7%
Leones Negros UDG28.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%
Both teams to scoreYes62.6%
No37.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.3%
12 (either side)73.3%
X2 (draw or away)55.5%
Handicap -1Tapatío win25.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss53.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
2-19.3%
1-27.1%

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Tapatío DWWLWD
Leones Negros UDG DWWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tapatío record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Tapatío wins 4Draws 3Leones Negros UDG wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-30TapatíoLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-08-23Leones Negros UDGTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2025-06-08Leones Negros UDGTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2025-06-01TapatíoLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-01-12TapatíoLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-3
2024-12-28Leones Negros UDGTapatíoFriendlies Clubs3-0
2024-11-18TapatíoLeones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2024-11-15Leones Negros UDGTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2024-07-27Leones Negros UDGTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-02-23Leones Negros UDGTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 27.2%, away 29.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.55 3.15
1xBet 2.07 3.34 3.16
Bet365 2.15 3.50 3.25
BetVictor 2.10 3.40 3.20
Betano 2.18 3.30 3.05
Betfair 2.05 3.50 3.00
Dafabet 2.19 3.35 3.10
Marathonbet 2.05 3.34 3.10
Pinnacle 2.14 3.57 3.29
SBO 2.08 3.05 2.77
Unibet 2.00 3.35 3.20
William Hill 2.05 3.30 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.08 ▼ -0.06
X 3.37 ▲ +0.02
2 3.18 ▲ +0.14

8 snapshots recorded, from .