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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 6

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas

1 – 1 Full time

12′R. Palomares
23′O. Soto
42′U. Torres
43′J. Aguayo
45′O. Soto
56′U. Torres
56′U. Torres
60′O. GilL. Sepulveda
60′J. BrigidoJ. Perez
71′F. GarciaI. Doumbouya
72′G. LopezJ. Clemente
81′L. RazoJ. Cazares
81′A. De Jesus Bravo SantiagoA. Carreon
86′S. A. HernandezK. Loera
87′R. GonzalezK. Y. Jaime Sanchez
87′C. FernandezA. Enciso
90′J. GamboaE. Ochoa

Estadio Jalisco, GuadalajaraReferee: J. C. Ortiz Leon

Leones Negros UDG 38%
Draw 29%
Piratas 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeones Negros UDGDrawPiratas
Model50.8%28.4%20.8%
Market34.3%28.8%37.0%
Final38.4%28.7%32.9%
Edge+16.5%-0.4%-16.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Leones Negros UDG

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Leones Negros UDG below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leones Negros ↓ / Piratas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 13% 13% 2 10% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Leones Negros UDG and Piratas expected goals

Leones Negros UDG 1.52
Piratas 0.88

Total expected goals: 2.40

Leones Negros UDG and Piratas attack and defence ratings

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Piratas

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas: result vs prediction

Leones Negros UDG 1 – 1 Piratas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 6 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leones Negros UDG 38.4% 2.60 +16.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.9% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score No 52.9% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.3% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.9% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leones Negros UDG38.4%
Draw28.7%
Piratas32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%
Both teams to scoreYes47.1%
No52.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)61.6%
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win27.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.1%
Loss48.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-012.5%
2-010.4%

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas stats

Leones Negros UDG and Piratas recent form

newest first
Leones Negros UDG WWLWWL
Piratas LLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leones Negros UDG and Piratas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Piratas record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 28.8%, away 37.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.74 3.35 2.46
1xBet 2.59 3.16 2.45
Bet365 2.75 3.30 2.55
Betano 2.65 3.15 2.55
Betfair 2.63 3.30 2.38
Dafabet 2.65 3.15 2.60
Marathonbet 2.59 3.16 2.45
Pinnacle 2.76 3.14 2.60
Unibet 2.70 3.10 2.45
William Hill 2.62 3.00 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.65 ▼ -0.10
X 3.16 ▲ +0.04
2 2.46 ▲ +0.12

10 snapshots recorded, from .