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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 6

Cancún vs CA La Paz

1 – 2 Full time

Referee: O. Delgadillo Franco

Cancún 46%
Draw 27%
CA La Paz 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Cancún vs CA La Paz overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cancún vs CA La Paz

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCancúnDrawCA La Paz
Model40.6%29.1%30.3%
Market47.6%26.1%26.3%
Final45.9%26.9%27.3%
Edge-7.0%+3.0%+4.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cancún ↓ / CA La Paz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 8% 1 10% 14% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Cancún and CA La Paz expected goals

Cancún 1.38
CA La Paz 1.16

Total expected goals: 2.53

Cancún and CA La Paz attack and defence ratings

Cancún

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.89 -11%

CA La Paz

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cancún vs CA La Paz: result vs prediction

Cancún 1 – 2 CA La Paz

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 6 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Cancún vs CA La Paz markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cancún 45.9% 2.18 -7.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.5% 1.87 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.5% 1.90 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cancún45.9%
Draw26.9%
CA La Paz27.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.5%
No47.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.7%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)54.1%
Handicap -1Cancún win19.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
1-09.7%
0-09.2%

Cancún vs CA La Paz stats

Cancún and CA La Paz recent form

newest first
Cancún WWLLDL
CA La Paz DWWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cancún and CA La Paz going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cancún record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

CA La Paz record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.

Cancún vs CA La Paz head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

4Cancún wins 3Draws 1CA La Paz wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-15CancúnCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2025-10-04CA La PazCancúnLiga de Expansión MX2-4
2025-04-20CancúnCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX4-1
2024-11-02CA La PazCancúnLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-03-02CancúnCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2023-09-14CA La PazCancúnLiga de Expansión MX1-4
2023-02-16CA La PazCancúnLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2022-08-03CancúnCA La PazLiga de Expansión MX2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Cancún vs CA La Paz odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 26.1%, away 26.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.91 3.60 3.70
1xBet 1.92 3.50 3.42
Bet365 1.91 3.60 3.75
BetVictor 1.91 3.50 3.60
Betano 1.90 3.55 3.50
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.40
Dafabet 1.97 3.55 3.55
Marathonbet 1.90 3.50 3.36
Pinnacle 1.97 3.82 3.48
SBO 2.08 3.15 2.84
Superbet 1.95 3.45 3.50
Unibet 2.12 3.35 3.30
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.92 ▼ -0.23
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 3.48 ▲ +0.46

12 snapshots recorded, from .