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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 6

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío

1 – 1 Full time

Referee: A. Lopez

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 40%
Draw 26%
Tapatío 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlebrijes de OaxacaDrawTapatío
Model37.0%25.7%37.2%
Market41.4%26.4%32.3%
Final40.3%26.2%33.5%
Edge-4.3%-0.6%+5.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alebrijes de O ↓ / Tapatío → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 12% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío expected goals

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.58
Tapatío 1.58

Total expected goals: 3.16

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío attack and defence ratings

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Tapatío

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío: result vs prediction

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 – 1 Tapatío

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 6 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 40.3% 2.48 -4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.1% 1.56 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.8% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.0% 1.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alebrijes de Oaxaca40.3%
Draw26.2%
Tapatío33.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes64.1%
No35.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.5%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1Alebrijes de Oaxaca win18.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.3%
Loss63.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
1-28.4%
2-18.4%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío stats

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío recent form

newest first
Alebrijes de Oaxaca LWWLLW
Tapatío WWLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Tapatío going into this match

league record before kick-off

Alebrijes de Oaxaca record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Tapatío record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins 2Draws 3Tapatío wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-13Alebrijes de OaxacaTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX4-3
2025-10-03TapatíoAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2025-02-01Alebrijes de OaxacaTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2024-08-17TapatíoAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX6-0
2024-03-08TapatíoAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2023-08-01Alebrijes de OaxacaTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2023-03-03TapatíoAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2022-08-04Alebrijes de OaxacaTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX4-0
2022-03-22TapatíoAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2021-09-29Alebrijes de OaxacaTapatíoLiga de Expansión MX0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 26.4%, away 32.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.32 3.50 2.82
1xBet 1.87 3.58 3.50
Bet365 2.50 3.30 2.75
BetVictor 2.15 3.50 3.00
Betano 2.32 3.30 2.80
Betfair 2.20 3.50 2.70
Dafabet 2.36 3.45 2.80
Marathonbet 1.85 3.58 3.44
Pinnacle 2.19 3.67 3.07
SBO 2.00 3.17 3.00
Superbet 2.32 3.35 2.75
Unibet 2.06 3.45 3.00
William Hill 2.25 3.30 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.21
X 3.45 ▼ -0.07
2 2.82 ▼ -0.52

7 snapshots recorded, from .