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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 7

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

4 – 1 Full time

22′R. del Campo
27′M. Rodriguez
32′K. AlvarezD. Martinez
46′A. ArellanoJ. Bustos
46′Andrey MarcosI. Barreda
46′B. FadikaA. Tecpanecatl
51′J. Bustos
57′M. Rodriguez
60′A. Justo
65′M. NamboV. Lopez
66′A. Justo
66′A. Justo
78′M. DominguezJ. Martinez
78′M. RodriguezP. Romero
78′R. del CampoA. Flores
78′T. Jaimes RodriguezM. Carreon
78′A. Flores
87′J. MartinezA. Andrade
90′A. Vazquez Hernandez

Estadio Morelos, MoreliaReferee: J. C. Ortiz Leon

Monarcas 61%
Draw 23%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonarcasDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Model61.3%23.1%15.6%
Market60.8%22.4%16.8%
Final60.9%22.6%16.5%
Edge+0.4%+0.7%-1.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Monarcas

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monarcas ↓ / Alebrijes de O → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals

Monarcas 1.98
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.91

Total expected goals: 2.88

Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack and defence ratings

Monarcas

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: result vs prediction

Monarcas 4 – 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monarcas 60.9% 1.64 +0.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.1% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.4% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.7% 2.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monarcas60.9%
Draw22.6%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.1%
Under 2.544.9%
Both teams to scoreYes52.4%
No47.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)77.4%
X2 (draw or away)39.1%
Handicap -1Monarcas win37.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.4%
Loss38.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
2-010.9%
1-010.0%

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca stats

Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form

newest first
Monarcas WLWWLW
Alebrijes de Oaxaca DLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca going into this match

league record before kick-off

Monarcas record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Monarcas wins 5Draws 0Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-17Alebrijes de OaxacaMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX0-3
2025-08-09MonarcasAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2025-02-09MonarcasAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-08-25Alebrijes de OaxacaMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-04-13Alebrijes de OaxacaMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX3-3
2023-10-05MonarcasAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX0-0
2023-04-14MonarcasAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2022-10-22MonarcasAlebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2022-08-27Alebrijes de OaxacaMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX1-3
2022-01-29Alebrijes de OaxacaMonarcasLiga de Expansión MX1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 61.3%, draw 22.3%, away 16.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.48 4.40 6.00
1xBet 1.49 4.05 5.53
Bet365 1.57 4.10 5.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.10 5.75
Betano 1.47 4.20 5.70
Betfair 1.40 4.33 6.00
Dafabet 1.51 4.30 5.80
Marathonbet 1.48 4.05 5.35
Pinnacle 1.53 4.33 5.58
SBO 1.41 3.81 5.03
Unibet 1.49 4.10 5.20
William Hill 1.50 4.00 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▲ +0.03
X 4.07 ▼ -0.18
2 5.44 ▼ -0.16

6 snapshots recorded, from .