Liga de Expansión MX · 2026-09-06T01:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Apertura - 7

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat

4 – 1 Full time

23′			F. Garcia
30′			J. Estopier
45′			B. Mendoza
46′			O. Soto
46′			T. SandovalD. Mina
47′			R. Palomares
47′			K. Y. Jaime Sanchez
48′			D. Mina
50′			K. Y. Jaime Sanchez
50′			K. Y. Jaime Sanchez
56′			B. Figueroa
58′			J. Estopier
61′			J. EstopierJ. Cantu
61′			Y. UribeN. Gomez Del Rosal
76′			C. FernandezJ. Clemente
76′			J. GamboaE. Ochoa
79′			R. GonzalezU. Garcia
80′			F. GarciaI. Doumbouya
80′			J. ZapataC. Sosa
85′			B. FigueroaE. Vargas
86′			N. Gomez Del Rosal
90′			I. Doumbouya
90′			J. Clemente
90′			I. Doumbouya
90′			O. Soto

Referee: E. H. Armenta J.

Piratas

57%

Draw

25%

Correcaminos Uat

18%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Piratas	Draw	Correcaminos Uat
Model	47.6%	28.4%	24.0%
Market	60.1%	23.4%	16.6%
Final	56.9%	24.6%	18.4%
Edge	-12.4%	+5.0%	+7.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Piratas

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 1.01.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

91%

2+ goals

73%

3+ goals

46%

No goals

Piratas and Correcaminos Uat expected goals

Piratas

1.51

Correcaminos Uat

1.01

Total expected goals: 2.51

Piratas and Correcaminos Uat attack and defence ratings

Piratas

Attack

0.76 -24%

Defence

0.74 -26%

Correcaminos Uat

Attack

1.17 +17%

Defence

1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat: result vs prediction

Piratas 4 – 1 Correcaminos Uat

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 7 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Tepatitlán vs Dorados · 2026-09-04
Durango v Tlaxcala — match page · 2026-09-05
CA La Paz vs Mineros de Zacatecas — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 2026-09-06
Cancún v Cruz Azul Hidalgo — match page · 2026-09-06
CDS Tampico Madero vs Venados FC — team news & stats · 2026-09-06
Tapatío v Leones Negros UDG — match page · 2026-09-06

Before and after this match

Piratas, previous: Leones Negros UDG – Piratas, 2026-08-30
Piratas, next: Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas: odds and pick
Correcaminos Uat, previous: Correcaminos Uat – Durango, 2026-08-29
Correcaminos Uat, next: Correcaminos Uat vs Cancún prediction

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Piratas	56.9%	1.76	-12.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	54.0%	1.85	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	50.6%	1.98	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.6%	1.23	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	52.4%	1.91	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Piratas	56.9%
	Draw	24.6%
	Correcaminos Uat	18.4%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46.0%
	Under 2.5	54.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	50.6%
	No	49.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.6%
	12 (either side)	75.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	43.1%
Handicap -1	Piratas win	24.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.9%
	Loss	52.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.5%
	1-0	11.0%
	0-0	9.3%

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat stats

Piratas and Correcaminos Uat recent form

newest first

Piratas	DLLWWD
Correcaminos Uat	DWLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Piratas and Correcaminos Uat going into this match

league record before kick-off

Piratas record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Correcaminos Uat record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Piratas vs Correcaminos Uat odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 23.3%, away 17.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	1.55	4.10	5.60
1xBet	1.49	3.88	5.86
Bet365	1.62	3.90	5.25
BetVictor	1.53	4.00	5.50
Betano	1.55	3.95	5.20
Betfair	1.50	4.00	5.00
Dafabet	1.57	4.10	5.40
Marathonbet	1.48	3.88	5.65
Pinnacle	1.56	4.17	5.49
SBO	1.46	3.58	4.84
Unibet	1.63	3.85	4.35
William Hill	1.50	3.80	5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.52 ▼ -0.03

X 3.89 ▼ -0.11

2 5.50 ▲ +0.29

6 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-03T08:10:02Z.