Tepatitlán
vs
Dorados
1 – 4 Full time
| 7′ | D. GarciaD. Osuna | ||
| 9′ | L. Vargas | ||
| 19′ | J. Castro | ||
| 22′ | S. Castaneda | ||
| 29′ | G. Olvera | ||
| 32′ | B. Ordorica | ||
| 37′ | S. CastanedaV. Valencia | ||
| 45′ | S. Gonzalez | ||
| 45′ | F. Sanguinetti | ||
| 45′ | D. Guajardo | ||
| 46′ | S. GonzalezA. Moreno | ||
| 58′ | B. OrdoricaF. Contreras | ||
| 58′ | L. VargasO. Coronel | ||
| 64′ | G. Olvera | ||
| 72′ | T. ArevaloL. Paez | ||
| 73′ | E. Martinez | ||
| 78′ | D. Guajardo | ||
| 81′ | F. SanguinettiE. Ortega | ||
| 81′ | D. GuajardoA. Flores | ||
| 81′ | DoradosM. Flores | ||
| 81′ | C. CastroB. Sanchez | ||
| 89′ | O. Coronel | ||
| 90′ | R. Franco |
Tepatitlán vs Dorados overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs Dorados
| Probability | Tepatitlán | Draw | Dorados |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.7% | 26.7% | 38.6% |
| Market | 43.9% | 26.8% | 29.3% |
| Final | 41.6% | 26.8% | 31.7% |
| Edge | -9.2% | -0.1% | +9.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tepatitlán and Dorados expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Tepatitlán and Dorados attack and defence ratings
Tepatitlán
Dorados
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tepatitlán vs Dorados: result vs prediction
Tepatitlán 1 – 4 Dorados
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tepatitlán vs Dorados markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 41.6% | 2.40 | -9.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tepatitlán | 41.6% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Dorados | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tepatitlán win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 65.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Tepatitlán vs Dorados stats
Tepatitlán and Dorados recent form
| Tepatitlán |
LWLLLL |
| Dorados |
LLDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tepatitlán and Dorados going into this match
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Dorados record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tepatitlán vs Dorados head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Dorados | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Tepatitlán | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-16 | Dorados | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Tepatitlán | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-12 | Tepatitlán | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-10 | Dorados | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-02 | Dorados | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-1 |
| 2022-06-27 | Tepatitlán | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2022-02-16 | Tepatitlán | Dorados | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-0 |
| 2021-12-05 | Dorados | Tepatitlán | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tepatitlán vs Dorados odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 26.8%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.08 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.40 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.64 | 3.16 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.07 | 3.07 |
| Superbet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .