Liga de Expansión MX · 2026-09-13T01:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Apertura - 8

Dorados vs Tapatío

3 – 1 Full time

9′			D. Villaseca
22′			S. Cervantes
31′			S. Cervantes
39′			F. Contreras
42′			C. Corona
46′			B. SanchezO. Coronel
46′			F. ContrerasL. Vargas
56′			C. LeyvaJ. Alvarez
63′			G. PadillaE. Gutierrez
63′			L. LedesmaJ. Uribe
63′			C. CoronaS. Esparza
64′			R. Parra
66′			V. Moragrega
67′			O. Coronel
74′			R. ParraD. Latorre
74′			D. GuajardoC. Galicia
84′			E. Gutierrez
85′			C. HernandezL. Calderon
85′			L. JimenezR. Nuno
90′			F. Pena
90′			L. Vargas
90′			L. Vargas

Estadio El Encanto, MazatlanReferee: M. Guzman

Dorados

43%

Draw

26%

Tapatío

31%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Dorados vs Tapatío overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dorados vs Tapatío

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Dorados	Draw	Tapatío
Model	52.5%	22.5%	25.0%
Market	39.8%	26.9%	33.3%
Final	43.0%	25.8%	31.2%
Edge	+12.7%	-4.4%	-8.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Dorados

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.43.
The market prices Dorados below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

96%

2+ goals

88%

3+ goals

69%

No goals

Dorados and Tapatío expected goals

Dorados

2.14

Tapatío

1.43

Total expected goals: 3.56

Dorados and Tapatío attack and defence ratings

Dorados

Attack

1.08 +8%

Defence

1.14 +14%

Tapatío

Attack

1.07 +7%

Defence

1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dorados vs Tapatío: result vs prediction

Dorados 3 – 1 Tapatío

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 8 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas · 2026-09-11
Correcaminos Uat v Cancún — match page · 2026-09-12
Tlaxcala vs CDS Tampico Madero — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Venados FC vs Tepatitlán · 2026-09-12
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Monarcas — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Dorados, previous: Tepatitlán v Dorados analysis
Dorados, next: Dorados v Cancún analysis
Tapatío, previous: Tapatío – Leones Negros UDG, 2026-09-06
Tapatío, next: Tapatío vs Tlaxcala: odds and pick

Dorados vs Tapatío markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Dorados	43.0%	2.33	+12.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69.2%	1.44	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	68.1%	1.47	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.2%	1.35	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	47.1%	2.12	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Dorados	43.0%
	Draw	25.8%
	Tapatío	31.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69.2%
	Under 2.5	30.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	68.1%
	No	31.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	68.8%
	12 (either side)	74.2%
	X2 (draw or away)	57.0%
Handicap -1	Dorados win	32.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.5%
	Loss	47.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	9.5%
	2-1	9.2%
	2-2	6.6%

Dorados vs Tapatío stats

Dorados and Tapatío recent form

newest first

Dorados	WLLDDW
Tapatío	LDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dorados and Tapatío going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dorados record

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tapatío record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.

Dorados vs Tapatío head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Dorados wins 2Draws 5Tapatío wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-18	Dorados	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	3-1
2025-11-09	Tapatío	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	4-1
2025-02-08	Tapatío	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	1-0
2024-08-25	Dorados	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	3-3
2024-04-06	Dorados	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	1-3
2023-11-03	Tapatío	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	0-1
2023-04-07	Tapatío	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	4-0
2022-10-16	Dorados	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	1-1
2022-01-13	Dorados	Tapatío	Liga de Expansión MX	0-2
2021-10-21	Tapatío	Dorados	Liga de Expansión MX	1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dorados vs Tapatío odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 26.8%, away 33.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.46	3.55	2.62
1xBet	2.29	3.32	2.77
888Sport	2.30	3.40	2.63
Bet365	2.35	3.40	2.90
BetVictor	2.30	3.50	2.75
Betano	2.32	3.30	2.80
Betfair	2.30	3.60	2.60
Dafabet	2.43	3.40	2.70
Marathonbet	2.27	3.32	2.72
Pinnacle	2.38	3.52	2.89
SBO	2.26	3.20	2.53
Superbet	2.42	3.30	2.67
Unibet	2.55	3.30	2.43
William Hill	2.30	3.40	2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.06

X 3.40 ▲ +0.11

2 2.75 ▲ +0.13

12 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T08:10:02Z.