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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 8

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas

1 – 1 Full time

10′D. Ramirez
33′E. Castaneda
36′D. RamirezE. Villegas
36′O. Soto
42′B. Figueroa
43′O. Soto
45′A. Lopez
45′R. Rubio
58′C. ValdiviaD. Valdez
58′V. TaboadaX. Camacho
58′E. CastanedaS. Espinosa
67′A. CubillasC. Leon
76′J. GamboaU. Garcia
88′E. Villegas
90′D. Valdez
90′U. Garcia
90′Piratas
90′C. FernandezD. Lajud Martinez
90′R. Rubio
90′R. Rubio

Estadio 10 de Diciembre, JassoReferee: J. M. Negrete Preciado

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 33%
Draw 27%
Piratas 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCruz Azul HidalgoDrawPiratas
Model32.4%28.1%39.5%
Market33.5%26.7%39.8%
Final33.2%27.0%39.7%
Edge-1.1%+1.4%-0.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Piratas

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Cruz Azul Hida ↓ / Piratas → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 7% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Piratas expected goals

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1.28
Piratas 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.72

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Piratas attack and defence ratings

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Piratas

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas: result vs prediction

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1 – 1 Piratas

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 8 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Piratas 39.7% 2.52 -0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.0% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.3% 1.78 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.5% 1.65 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Cruz Azul Hidalgo33.2%
Draw27.0%
Piratas39.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.0%
Under 2.549.0%
Both teams to scoreYes56.3%
No43.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.3%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)66.8%
Handicap -1Piratas win19.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss60.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-28.7%
0-18.3%

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas stats

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Piratas recent form

newest first
Cruz Azul Hidalgo LWDLLD
Piratas WDLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Piratas going into this match

league record before kick-off

Cruz Azul Hidalgo record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Piratas record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Piratas odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 26.7%, away 39.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.60 3.40 2.32
Bet365 2.88 3.50 2.30
BetVictor 2.63 3.50 2.40
Marathonbet 2.70 3.36 2.26
Pinnacle 2.79 3.60 2.42
William Hill 2.80 3.30 2.20

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.