Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 8
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
vs
Durango
1 – 0 Full time
| 20′ | J. Bustos | ||
| 26′ | R. Dominguez | ||
| 29′ | O. Paz Vasquez | ||
| 30′ | A. Hernandez | ||
| 46′ | B. MunozJ. Angulo | ||
| 46′ | R. DominguezT. Montano | ||
| 46′ | J. S. RamirezJ. I. Reyes Olguin | ||
| 46′ | T. Jaimes RodriguezA. Tecpanecatl | ||
| 52′ | E. Cantu | ||
| 62′ | L. MoralesC. Vega Hernandez | ||
| 66′ | J. Bustos | ||
| 71′ | C. SiqueirosL. Lorona | ||
| 75′ | A. HernandezA. Justo | ||
| 75′ | B. FadikaO. Ballesteros | ||
| 79′ | A. Garcia | ||
| 82′ | J. BustosL. Jeffus | ||
| 82′ | Andrey MarcosI. Barreda | ||
| 90′ | D. Martinez | ||
| 90′ | A. Tecpanecatl |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
43%
Draw
31%
Durango
26%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango
| Probability | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 30.6% | 25.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.5% | 30.6% | 25.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Durango expected goals
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.31
Durango
0.95
Total expected goals: 2.26
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Durango attack and defence ratings
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Durango
Attack
0.64 -36%
Defence
0.88 -12%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango: result vs prediction
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 – 0 Durango
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 43.5% |
| Draw | 30.6% | |
| Durango | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango stats
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Durango recent form
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
LDLWWL |
| Durango |
DDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Durango going into this match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Durango record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Durango head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
1Draws
0Durango wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-15 | Durango | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-10 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.