Garuda Lions
Today
Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 8

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán

5 – 0 Full time

38′P. Kilani
38′E. Martinez
42′S. Lora
45′A. EstradaA. Gatica
46′A. TamayH. Avila
46′B. CasasJ. Cruz
49′A. Grijalva
52′S. Lora
57′D. Tejeda
59′A. Dominguez
61′H. Avila
66′D. VillalpandoT. Arevalo
66′R. AlonsoL. Egurrola
68′Ochoa BrandonS. Montiel
68′A. GrijalvaS. Naveda
74′S. Lora
80′D. TejedaM. Aguilar
80′P. KilaniL. Lazarte
81′F. Sanguinetti
87′S. LoraS. Benitez
88′S. Benitez
90′L. Lazarte

Estadio Carlos Iturralde RiveroReferee: O. Delgadillo Franco

Venados FC 66%
Draw 19%
Tepatitlán 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Venados FC vs Tepatitlán

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVenados FCDrawTepatitlán
Model79.7%12.2%8.1%
Market60.9%21.7%17.4%
Final65.6%19.3%15.1%
Edge+18.8%-9.6%-9.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Venados FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.41 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Venados FC below the model: +18.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Venados FC ↓ / Tepatitlán → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 3 4+ 14% 16% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 83%
No goals 1%

Venados FC and Tepatitlán expected goals

Venados FC 3.41
Tepatitlán 1.13

Total expected goals: 4.54

Venados FC and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings

Venados FC

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Tepatitlán

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 1.52 +52%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán: result vs prediction

Venados FC 5 – 0 Tepatitlán

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Apertura - 8 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Venados FC 65.6% 1.52 +18.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 83.1% 1.20 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.0% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.9% 1.18 — —
Handicap -1 Venados FC win 63.2% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Venados FC65.6%
Draw19.3%
Tepatitlán15.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.583.1%
Under 2.516.9%
Both teams to scoreYes66.0%
No34.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.9%
12 (either side)80.7%
X2 (draw or away)34.4%
Handicap -1Venados FC win63.2%
Push (exactly one goal)16.5%
Loss20.2%
Correct score (top 3)3-18.0%
3-07.0%
2-17.0%

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán stats

Venados FC and Tepatitlán recent form

newest first
Venados FC LLWLWD
Tepatitlán LLWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Venados FC and Tepatitlán going into this match

league record before kick-off

Venados FC record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tepatitlán record

  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Venados FC wins 3Draws 1Tepatitlán wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21TepatitlánVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2025-10-11Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-01-11TepatitlánVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX2-2
2024-07-27Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-1
2024-01-19TepatitlánVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX0-5
2023-09-28Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX5-1
2023-01-05Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2022-10-20Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX4-2
2022-09-16TepatitlánVenados FCLiga de Expansión MX1-2
2022-03-24Venados FCTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Venados FC vs Tepatitlán odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.3%, draw 22.1%, away 17.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.66 4.00 4.60
1xBet 1.50 4.10 5.32
888Sport 1.65 3.70 4.33
Bet365 1.55 4.20 5.25
BetVictor 1.50 4.20 5.50
Betano 1.52 4.20 5.10
Betfair 1.44 4.33 5.50
Dafabet 1.67 3.85 4.50
Marathonbet 1.49 4.10 5.15
Pinnacle 1.50 4.59 5.77
SBO 1.42 3.98 5.22
Superbet 1.57 3.90 4.90
William Hill 1.50 4.00 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 ▼ -0.05
X 4.20 ▲ +0.05
2 5.25 ▲ +0.62

13 snapshots recorded, from .