Liga de Expansión MX
·
Full time
·Apertura - 6
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
vs
Tepatitlán
6 – 0 Full time
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
47%
Draw
30%
Tepatitlán
23%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán
| Probability | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | Draw | Tepatitlán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 30.1% | 23.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.6% | 30.1% | 23.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.90.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
40%
No goals
12%
Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tepatitlán expected goals
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1.37
Tepatitlán
0.90
Total expected goals: 2.27
Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tepatitlán attack and defence ratings
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Tepatitlán
Attack
0.77 -23%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán: result vs prediction
Cruz Azul Hidalgo 6 – 0 Tepatitlán
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 46.6% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 46.6% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Tepatitlán | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.5% |
| No | 54.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tepatitlán stats
Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tepatitlán recent form
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
DLLDD |
| Tepatitlán |
WLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tepatitlán going into this match
Cruz Azul Hidalgo record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Tepatitlán record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.