Tlaxcala
vs
Venados FC
3 – 1 Full time
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tlaxcala vs Venados FC
| Probability | Tlaxcala | Draw | Venados FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.9% | 23.3% | 39.8% |
| Market | 48.4% | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Final | 45.5% | 25.2% | 29.3% |
| Edge | -11.5% | -2.5% | +14.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tlaxcala and Venados FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.70
Tlaxcala and Venados FC attack and defence ratings
Tlaxcala
Venados FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC: result vs prediction
Tlaxcala 3 – 1 Venados FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 45.5% | 2.20 | -11.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tlaxcala | 45.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Venados FC | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.8% |
| No | 28.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tlaxcala win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC stats
Tlaxcala and Venados FC recent form
| Tlaxcala |
LDLLLD |
| Venados FC |
WLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tlaxcala and Venados FC going into this match
Tlaxcala record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Venados FC record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Tlaxcala | Venados FC | Liga de Expansión MX | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Venados FC | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 25.8%, away 25.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.94 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.92 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.92 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.63 | 3.32 |
| Superbet | 1.92 | 3.50 | 3.55 |
| Unibet | 2.00 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .