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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 5

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG

1 – 2 Full time

Estadio Francisco Zarco, DurangoReferee: F. Cruz Garatachea

Durango 33%
Draw 29%
Leones Negros UDG 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Durango vs Leones Negros UDG

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDurangoDrawLeones Negros UDG
Model33.3%29.2%37.5%
Market———
Final33.3%29.2%37.5%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Leones Negros UDG

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Durango ↓ / Leones Negros → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 9% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Durango and Leones Negros UDG expected goals

Durango 1.23
Leones Negros UDG 1.32

Total expected goals: 2.54

Durango and Leones Negros UDG attack and defence ratings

Durango

Attack 0.69 -31%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Leones Negros UDG

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG: result vs prediction

Durango 1 – 2 Leones Negros UDG

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 5 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leones Negros UDG 37.5% 2.67 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.3% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.0% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.8% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.5% 1.60 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Durango33.3%
Draw29.2%
Leones Negros UDG37.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.0%
No47.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.5%
12 (either side)70.8%
X2 (draw or away)66.7%
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win17.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss62.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
0-09.1%
0-19.1%

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG stats

Durango and Leones Negros UDG recent form

newest first
Durango LLWW
Leones Negros UDG WLWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Durango and Leones Negros UDG going into this match

league record before kick-off

Durango record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Leones Negros UDG record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Durango vs Leones Negros UDG odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.