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Liga de Expansión MX · Full time ·Apertura - 11

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero

3 – 1 Full time

6′J. Sanchez
8′R. Gonzalez
30′F. SanguinettiA. Tamay
41′D. Magana
47′L. Egurrola
55′I. Ramirez
57′I. Ochoa
57′S. MartinezJ. Tovar
57′J. MartinezO. Mendez
57′D. LopezF. Lopez
58′J. GodinezB. Casas
59′J. Sanchez
61′G. Olvera
72′G. Baez
77′I. Ochoa
78′J. SanchezI. Contreras
78′L. EgurrolaN. Martinez
78′J. CruzM. Lopez

Referee: J. L. Alba Dorado

Tepatitlán 26%
Draw 25%
CDS Tampico Madero 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTepatitlánDrawCDS Tampico Madero
Model26.4%28.4%45.2%
Market25.2%24.2%50.6%
Final25.5%25.3%49.2%
Edge+1.2%+4.2%-5.4%

Confidence: Low

Why CDS Tampico Madero

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tepatitlán ↓ / CDS Tampico Ma → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 10% 8% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero expected goals

Tepatitlán 1.08
CDS Tampico Madero 1.48

Total expected goals: 2.56

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero attack and defence ratings

Tepatitlán

Attack 0.58 -42%
Defence 1.62 +62%

CDS Tampico Madero

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero: result vs prediction

Tepatitlán 3 – 1 CDS Tampico Madero

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

Liga de Expansión MX

Before and after this match

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CDS Tampico Madero 49.2% 2.03 -5.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.7% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.8% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tepatitlán25.5%
Draw25.3%
CDS Tampico Madero49.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.3%
Under 2.552.7%
Both teams to scoreYes52.3%
No47.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.8%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)74.5%
Handicap -1CDS Tampico Madero win23.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss54.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
0-110.2%
1-29.2%

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero stats

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero recent form

newest first
Tepatitlán LLLLWL
CDS Tampico Madero LDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tepatitlán and CDS Tampico Madero going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tepatitlán record

  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.

CDS Tampico Madero record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Tepatitlán wins 3Draws 4CDS Tampico Madero wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-31CDS Tampico MaderoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX2-0
2026-05-24TepatitlánCDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX3-1
2026-05-17TepatitlánCDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2026-05-10CDS Tampico MaderoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX0-0
2026-01-18CDS Tampico MaderoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2025-11-23CDS Tampico MaderoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX1-0
2025-11-21TepatitlánCDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX0-1
2025-08-09TepatitlánCDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX0-0
2025-03-30CDS Tampico MaderoTepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX2-1
2024-10-12TepatitlánCDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tepatitlán vs CDS Tampico Madero odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.2%, draw 24.2%, away 50.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.74 4.07 1.87
Bet365 4.00 3.90 1.80
BetVictor 3.80 3.60 1.83
Betano 3.65 3.80 1.80
Betfair 4.00 3.80 1.70
Marathonbet 3.44 3.80 1.77
Pinnacle 3.52 4.20 1.87
SBO 3.44 3.24 1.82
William Hill 3.50 3.50 1.83

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.65 ▼ -0.01
X 3.80 ▲ +0.40
2 1.82 ▼ -0.03

14 snapshots recorded, from .