Fana vs Bjarg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fana vs Bjarg
| Probability | Fana | Draw | Bjarg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.9% | 18.0% | 65.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.9% | 18.0% | 65.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Bjarg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.36.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
80%
No goals
2%
Fana and Bjarg expected goals
Fana
1.36
Bjarg
2.89
Total expected goals: 4.25
Fana and Bjarg attack and defence ratings
Fana
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Bjarg
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fana vs Bjarg: result vs prediction
Fana 1 – 3 Bjarg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fana vs Bjarg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bjarg | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bjarg win | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fana | 16.9% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Bjarg | 65.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% |
| No | 29.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 34.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bjarg win | 49.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 31.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |