Garuda Lions
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NM Cupen · Full time ·Round 1

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

0 – 2 Full time

Sparta Sarpsborg 27%
Draw 26%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySparta SarpsborgDrawSarpsborg 08 FF
Model26.8%25.6%47.6%
Market———
Final26.8%25.6%47.6%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Sarpsborg 08 FF

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.09.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sparta Sarpsbo ↓ / Sarpsborg 08 F → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 6% 2 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Sparta Sarpsborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

Sparta Sarpsborg 1.09
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.05

Total expected goals: 3.14

Sparta Sarpsborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF attack and defence ratings

Sparta Sarpsborg

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Attack 0.64 -36%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: result vs prediction

Sparta Sarpsborg 0 – 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round 1 fixtures

NM Cupen

Before and after this match

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sarpsborg 08 FF 47.6% 2.10 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.4% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.3% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sparta Sarpsborg26.8%
Draw25.6%
Sarpsborg 08 FF47.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%
Both teams to scoreYes60.7%
No39.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.4%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)73.2%
Handicap -1Sarpsborg 08 FF win36.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss41.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-29.5%
0-27.4%

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF stats

Sparta Sarpsborg and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

newest first
Sparta Sarpsborg no matches on record
Sarpsborg 08 FF LLDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sparta Sarpsborg vs Sarpsborg 08 FF odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.