Al Ain
vs
Ajman
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ain
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al Ain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al Ain vs Ajman overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ain vs Ajman
| Probability | Al Ain | Draw | Ajman |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.4% | 15.4% | 10.1% |
| Market | 72.8% | 16.4% | 10.8% |
| Final | 73.2% | 16.2% | 10.6% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
Why Al Ain
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 73.2% × 1.30 − 1).
Al Ain vs Ajman match preview
Al Ain is set to face Ajman in the UAE Pro League, with a significant advantage reflected in the probabilities. Al Ain has a 74% chance of winning, while Ajman stands at just 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Al Ain's expected goals are 2.86, compared to Ajman's 1.03, indicating a strong offensive performance anticipated from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Al Ain has recorded a mix of results with one loss and four wins in their last five matches, while Ajman has struggled, losing two of their last three games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 75%, and there is a 61% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ain and Ajman expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
Al Ain and Ajman attack and defence ratings
Al Ain
Ajman
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ain vs Ajman markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ain | 73.2% | 1.37 | +0.4% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ain win | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ain | 73.2% |
| Draw | 16.2% | |
| Ajman | 10.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ain win | 55.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 25.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Al Ain vs Ajman stats
Al Ain and Ajman recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ain and Ajman season so far
Al Ain record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Ajman record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Al Ain vs Ajman head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Al Ain | Ajman | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Ajman | Al Ain | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Ain vs Ajman odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 72.8%, draw 16.4%, away 10.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 5.50 | 8.90 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 5.30 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.22 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.27 | 5.98 | 8.21 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .