USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Birmingham Legion
vs
New Mexico United
4 – 4 Full time
| 11′ | R. Williams | ||
| 16′ | Z. Bailey | ||
| 19′ | N. Reid-Stephen | ||
| 19′ | J. Heaps | ||
| 39′ | M. Howell | ||
| 43′ | M. HowellJ. LaCava | ||
| 57′ | K. ColeS. Shashoua | ||
| 57′ | D. McCartneyN. Brown | ||
| 59′ | H. Diop | ||
| 64′ | G. Hurst | ||
| 66′ | P. VassellR. Damus | ||
| 66′ | J. Melto Quiah | ||
| 69′ | R. Williams | ||
| 74′ | C. GlosterT. Blackett | ||
| 74′ | N. Reid-StephenC. Nava | ||
| 74′ | O. JabangG. Zelalem | ||
| 74′ | R. WilliamsS. Ngoma | ||
| 74′ | T. PasherS. McIllhatton | ||
| 77′ | R. Damus | ||
| 83′ | L. ArchimedeC. Wilkerson | ||
| 87′ | G. Diarbian | ||
| 90′ | S. Antwi | ||
| 90′ | C. Nava | ||
| 90′ | R. Damus |
Birmingham Legion
34%
Draw
26%
New Mexico United
40%
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United
| Probability | Birmingham Legion | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.4% | 25.0% | 49.6% |
| Market | 36.3% | 26.4% | 37.3% |
| Final | 33.6% | 26.0% | 40.4% |
| Edge | -10.9% | -1.4% | +12.3% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +12.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
6%
Birmingham Legion and New Mexico United expected goals
Birmingham Legion
1.26
New Mexico United
1.82
Total expected goals: 3.09
Birmingham Legion and New Mexico United attack and defence ratings
Birmingham Legion
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
1.31 +31%
New Mexico United
Attack
1.18 +18%
Defence
0.79 -21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United: result vs prediction
Birmingham Legion 4 – 4 New Mexico United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 40.4% | 2.48 | +12.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham Legion | 33.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| New Mexico United | 40.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.6% |
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United stats
Birmingham Legion and New Mexico United recent form
| Birmingham Legion |
DDLLLW |
| New Mexico United |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham Legion and New Mexico United going into this match
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 3 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
2Birmingham Legion wins
1Draws
0New Mexico United wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-21 | New Mexico United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-10 | Birmingham Legion | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-06-26 | New Mexico United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham Legion vs New Mexico United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 26.4%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.32 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.32 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.63 | 3.51 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.49 —
X
3.42 ▼ -0.35
2
2.42 ▲ +0.12
6 snapshots recorded, from .