Garuda Lions
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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion

4 – 0 Full time

30′Paterson AJ
39′M. Myers
46′Paterson AJH. Diop
46′S. NgomaG. Diarbian
46′S. McIllhattonT. Pasher
46′L. HiltonS. Cruz
54′J. Heaps
56′M. Myers
60′M. Myers
61′R. CiceroneM. Micaletto
61′M. SchneiderL. Wyke
61′E. ConwayB. Schaefer
61′R. DamusR. Williams
64′C. Ostrem
68′R. Williams
72′S. Shashoua
73′S. TregarthenD. McCartney
74′L. Wyke
77′M. MyersPedro Becker

Al Lang StadiumReferee: M. Hassan

Tampa Bay Rowdies 67%
Draw 18%
Birmingham Legion 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTampa Bay RowdiesDrawBirmingham Legion
Model63.1%18.8%18.1%
Market68.3%18.0%13.8%
Final67.0%18.2%14.8%
Edge-5.1%+0.8%+4.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Tampa Bay Rowdies

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tampa Bay Rowd ↓ / Birmingham Leg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion expected goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.63
Birmingham Legion 1.39

Total expected goals: 4.02

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Birmingham Legion

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 1.48 +48%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion: result vs prediction

Tampa Bay Rowdies 4 – 0 Birmingham Legion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 67.0% 1.49 -5.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.4% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.4% 1.42 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.2% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Tampa Bay Rowdies win 43.5% 2.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tampa Bay Rowdies67.0%
Draw18.2%
Birmingham Legion14.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.4%
Under 2.523.6%
Both teams to scoreYes70.4%
No29.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.2%
12 (either side)81.8%
X2 (draw or away)33.0%
Handicap -1Tampa Bay Rowdies win43.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss36.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
3-17.5%
1-17.2%

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion stats

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion recent form

newest first
Tampa Bay Rowdies LWDLWW
Birmingham Legion DDDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies record

  • They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Birmingham Legion record

  • They have won 3 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Tampa Bay Rowdies wins 2Draws 5Birmingham Legion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-08Birmingham LegionTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-1
2025-09-17Birmingham LegionTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-4
2025-05-03Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUSL Championship2-2
2024-09-12Birmingham LegionTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship2-0
2024-05-11Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUSL Championship0-1
2024-05-08Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUS Open Cup6-4
2023-10-21Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUSL Championship0-3
2023-07-15Birmingham LegionTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-0
2023-04-01Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUSL Championship0-2
2022-09-23Tampa Bay RowdiesBirmingham LegionUSL Championship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.4%, draw 18.2%, away 13.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.31 5.00 7.01
Bet365 1.33 4.75 6.50
BetVictor 1.33 5.00 7.50
Betano 1.37 4.75 6.20
Betfair 1.30 5.00 7.50
Marathonbet 1.30 5.05 6.60
Pinnacle 1.34 5.53 7.44
William Hill 1.33 4.80 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.33 —
X 5.05 ▲ +0.30
2 6.60 ▼ -0.30

10 snapshots recorded, from .