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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

3 – 1 Full time

26′M. Adedokun
41′M. Ngalina
43′L. Hilton
45′M. Adedokun
46′J. ScarlettA. Diz
46′L. HiltonL. Perez
48′S. Anaku
50′A. Diz
54′K. HenderlongJ. Locadia
55′J. Moreira
61′B. MinesS. Anderson
61′M. AdedokunB. Coffey
62′S. AnakuA. Williams
68′A. Siaha
74′C. HadjipaschalisB. Makangila
79′L. Wyke
81′L. Perez
83′Pedro BeckerM. Micaletto
86′J. Waite
87′M. Ngalina
88′J. Moreira
88′J. Moreira
89′M. SchneiderE. Conway
90′L. Perez
90′L. Perez

Trinity Health StadiumReferee: C. Rodriguez

Hartford Athletic 28%
Draw 28%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHartford AthleticDrawTampa Bay Rowdies
Model29.2%31.1%39.8%
Market27.0%26.6%46.3%
Final27.6%27.8%44.7%
Edge+2.1%+4.5%-6.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Tampa Bay Rowdies

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Hartford Athle ↓ / Tampa Bay Rowd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 12% 8% 1 9% 15% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 39%
No goals 12%

Hartford Athletic and Tampa Bay Rowdies expected goals

Hartford Athletic 1.02
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.24

Total expected goals: 2.26

Hartford Athletic and Tampa Bay Rowdies attack and defence ratings

Hartford Athletic

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 0.77 -23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: result vs prediction

Hartford Athletic 3 – 1 Tampa Bay Rowdies

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 44.7% 2.24 -6.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.7% 1.65 — —
Both teams to score No 53.2% 1.88 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.4% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 60.2% 1.66 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Hartford Athletic27.6%
Draw27.8%
Tampa Bay Rowdies44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.3%
Under 2.560.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.8%
No53.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)72.4%
Handicap -1Tampa Bay Rowdies win18.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.7%
Loss60.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.5%
0-011.8%
0-111.6%

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies stats

Hartford Athletic and Tampa Bay Rowdies recent form

newest first
Hartford Athletic DWWWDL
Tampa Bay Rowdies WDLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Hartford Athletic and Tampa Bay Rowdies going into this match

league record before kick-off

Hartford Athletic record

  • They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tampa Bay Rowdies record

  • They have won 14 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Hartford Athletic wins 2Draws 7Tampa Bay Rowdies wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-13Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford AthleticUSL Championship0-1
2025-10-18Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford AthleticUSL Championship3-2
2025-07-16Hartford AthleticTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-1
2024-10-23Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford AthleticUSL Championship2-2
2024-06-21Hartford AthleticTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-1
2023-09-27Hartford AthleticTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-2
2023-09-02Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford AthleticUSL Championship2-1
2022-07-09Hartford AthleticTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship2-3
2022-03-26Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford AthleticUSL Championship1-1
2021-09-25Hartford AthleticTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 26.7%, away 46.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.41 3.38 1.96
Bet365 3.30 3.40 1.95
BetVictor 3.40 3.40 2.00
Betano 3.35 3.40 1.98
Betfair 3.30 3.50 1.91
Dafabet 3.45 3.40 2.02
Marathonbet 3.35 3.38 1.94
Pinnacle 3.45 3.66 2.03
Unibet 3.45 3.30 1.90
William Hill 3.25 3.30 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.35 ▼ -0.16
X 3.40 ▼ -0.05
2 1.96 ▼ -0.06

14 snapshots recorded, from .