Charleston Battery
vs
Louisville City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charleston Battery
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Charleston Battery is the favourite, not a value bet.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charleston Battery vs Louisville City
| Probability | Charleston Battery | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 27.6% | 32.5% |
| Market | 41.2% | 27.5% | 31.3% |
| Final | 40.9% | 27.5% | 31.6% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.0% | +0.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 40.9% × 2.31 − 1).
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City match preview
Charleston Battery faces Louisville City in a matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Charleston Battery has a 41% chance of winning, while Louisville City stands at 32%, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Charleston Battery, with an expected goal tally of 1.47 for them and 1.31 for Louisville City.
In terms of recent form, Charleston Battery has recorded two draws, two wins, and one loss in their last five matches, while Louisville City is on a strong run with five consecutive wins followed by a draw. Historical head-to-head results show Charleston Battery winning three times, Louisville City five times, and two matches ending in a draw out of the last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Charleston Battery and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Charleston Battery
Louisville City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 40.9% | 2.45 | -0.4% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 40.9% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Louisville City | 31.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 60.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City stats
Charleston Battery and Louisville City recent form
| Charleston Battery |
DDWWDL |
| Louisville City |
WWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City season so far
Charleston Battery record
- They have won 16 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 15 of 16 penalties (94%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-18 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-09 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-10 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-07 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.2%, draw 27.5%, away 31.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.28 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.28 | 2.79 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.48 | 3.09 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .