New Mexico United
vs
Sacramento Republic
Garuda Lions Prediction: New Mexico United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.01.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 29.3% | 25.4% |
| Market | 32.3% | 29.8% | 37.9% |
| Final | 35.5% | 29.7% | 34.8% |
| Edge | +3.3% | -0.1% | -3.1% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices New Mexico United below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (our 35.5% × 3.01 − 1).
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic match preview
New Mexico United faces Sacramento Republic in an upcoming USL Championship match, with probabilities indicating a 45% chance of a New Mexico United victory, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 25% chance for Sacramento Republic. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Expected goals are calculated at 1.42 for New Mexico United and 1.01 for Sacramento Republic, suggesting a slight edge for the home side in terms of offensive output.
In terms of recent form, New Mexico United has recorded three wins, one loss, and two additional wins in their last six matches, while Sacramento Republic has achieved four wins and two draws in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Sacramento Republic holds a slight advantage with six wins compared to New Mexico United's three victories and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 35.5% | 2.81 | +3.3% | 3.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 35.5% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Sacramento Republic | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.4% |
| No | 50.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 54.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.1% |
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic stats
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic recent form
| New Mexico United |
WWWLWW |
| Sacramento Republic |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic season so far
New Mexico United record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 15 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-30 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-19 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-21 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-23 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-23 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 29.8%, away 37.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 2.84 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 3.05 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 2.82 | 2.84 | 2.43 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 2.90 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .