Venezuela Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 10
Portuguesa FC
vs
Estudiantes de Merida FC
2 – 1 Full time
Portuguesa FC
40%
Draw
30%
Estudiantes de Merida FC
30%
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC
| Probability | Portuguesa FC | Draw | Estudiantes de Merida FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.0% | 32.9% | 24.1% |
| Market | 39.4% | 29.2% | 31.4% |
| Final | 40.3% | 30.1% | 29.6% |
| Edge | +3.6% | +3.7% | -7.3% |
Why Portuguesa FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.81.
- The market prices Portuguesa FC below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Portuguesa FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals
Portuguesa FC
1.17
Estudiantes de Merida FC
0.81
Total expected goals: 1.98
Portuguesa FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC attack and defence ratings
Portuguesa FC
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Attack
0.82 -18%
Defence
0.87 -13%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: result vs prediction
Portuguesa FC 2 – 1 Estudiantes de Merida FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portuguesa FC | 40.3% | 2.48 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portuguesa FC | 40.3% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portuguesa FC win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.1% |
| 1-0 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC stats
Portuguesa FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form
| Portuguesa FC |
DDDDDW |
| Estudiantes de Merida FC |
WLDWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portuguesa FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC going into this match
Portuguesa FC record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Estudiantes de Merida FC record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Portuguesa FC wins
3Draws
3Estudiantes de Merida FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Portuguesa FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Copa Venezuela | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Copa Venezuela | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-11 | Portuguesa FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Venezuela Primera División | 4-2 |
| 2024-10-12 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | Portuguesa FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2023-07-16 | Portuguesa FC | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-30 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-07 | Estudiantes de Merida FC | Portuguesa FC | Primera División | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portuguesa FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 29.2%, away 31.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 2.98 | 2.97 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 2.99 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.03 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.29 ▼ -0.04
X
3.10 ▲ +0.10
2
2.88 ▼ -0.03
3 snapshots recorded, from .