Plzen
vs
FK Crvena Zvezda
5 – 1 Full time
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda
| Probability | Plzen | Draw | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 20.2% | 63.5% |
| Market | 44.8% | 25.4% | 29.8% |
| Final | 37.6% | 24.1% | 38.2% |
| Edge | -28.5% | -5.2% | +33.6% |
Why FK Crvena Zvezda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Crvena Zvezda below the model: +33.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Plzen and FK Crvena Zvezda expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Plzen and FK Crvena Zvezda attack and defence ratings
Plzen
FK Crvena Zvezda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda: result vs prediction
Plzen 5 – 1 FK Crvena Zvezda
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 38.2% | 2.61 | +33.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plzen | 37.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| FK Crvena Zvezda | 38.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.5% |
| No | 37.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Crvena Zvezda win | 42.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 36.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.0% | |
| 0-2 | 8.4% |
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda stats
Plzen and FK Crvena Zvezda recent form
| Plzen |
LWDDLL |
| FK Crvena Zvezda |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | FK Crvena Zvezda | Plzen | UEFA Europa League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Plzen vs FK Crvena Zvezda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.8%, draw 25.4%, away 29.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.16 | 3.70 | 2.96 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.76 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.75 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.62 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.81 | 3.25 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.26 | 2.85 |
| Superbet | 2.17 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .