LD Alajuelense
vs
San Carlos
0 – 1 Full time
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos
| Probability | LD Alajuelense | Draw | San Carlos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.5% | 19.3% | 10.2% |
| Market | 62.3% | 22.4% | 15.4% |
| Final | 64.3% | 21.6% | 14.1% |
| Edge | +8.2% | -3.1% | -5.1% |
Why LD Alajuelense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices LD Alajuelense below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
LD Alajuelense and San Carlos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
LD Alajuelense and San Carlos attack and defence ratings
LD Alajuelense
San Carlos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos: result vs prediction
LD Alajuelense 0 – 1 San Carlos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Apertura - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 64.3% | 1.55 | +8.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LD Alajuelense | 64.3% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| San Carlos | 14.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | LD Alajuelense win | 47.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 29.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos stats
LD Alajuelense and San Carlos recent form
| LD Alajuelense |
WWWDLW |
| San Carlos |
WLLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
LD Alajuelense and San Carlos going into this match
LD Alajuelense record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
San Carlos record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | San Carlos | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-25 | LD Alajuelense | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | San Carlos | LD Alajuelense | Costa Rica Primera División | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-17 | LD Alajuelense | San Carlos | Costa Rica Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
LD Alajuelense vs San Carlos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.3%, draw 22.6%, away 15.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 3.84 | 6.50 |
| 888Sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.10 | 5.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 3.84 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.00 | 7.06 |
| SBO | 1.43 | 3.80 | 5.42 |
| Superbet | 1.51 | 4.15 | 5.55 |
| Unibet | 1.38 | 4.30 | 6.75 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.90 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .