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Cyprus 1. Division · Full time ·Matchday 1

Aris vs Apollon Limassol

2 – 2 Full time

Alphamega Stadium, KolossiReferee: A. Tehrany

Aris 33%
Draw 22%
Apollon Limassol 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Aris vs Apollon Limassol overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aris vs Apollon Limassol

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityArisDrawApollon Limassol
Model32.7%21.8%45.5%
Market———
Final32.7%21.8%45.5%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Apollon Limassol

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.83.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aris ↓ / Apollon Limass → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 4% 1 8% 8% 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 5% 3 4% 4% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 3%

Aris and Apollon Limassol expected goals

Aris 1.83
Apollon Limassol 2.18

Total expected goals: 4.01

Aris and Apollon Limassol attack and defence ratings

Aris

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Apollon Limassol

Attack 1.37 +37%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aris vs Apollon Limassol: result vs prediction

Aris 2 – 2 Apollon Limassol

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Cyprus 1. Division

Before and after this match

Aris vs Apollon Limassol markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Apollon Limassol 45.5% 2.20 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.6% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.4% 1.33 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aris32.7%
Draw21.8%
Apollon Limassol45.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.6%
Under 2.523.4%
Both teams to scoreYes75.4%
No24.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.5%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)67.3%
Handicap -1Apollon Limassol win27.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss54.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-17.9%
1-27.8%
2-27.2%

Aris vs Apollon Limassol stats

Aris and Apollon Limassol recent form

newest first
Aris LLLWLL
Apollon Limassol LWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aris vs Apollon Limassol head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Aris wins 2Draws 2Apollon Limassol wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-16Apollon LimassolArisCyprus 1. Division3-2
2026-04-18ArisApollon LimassolCyprus 1. Division3-0
2025-12-14Apollon LimassolArisCyprus 1. Division0-2
2025-08-23ArisApollon LimassolCyprus 1. Division3-1
2025-05-18Apollon LimassolAris1. Division2-3
2025-04-13ArisApollon Limassol1. Division2-1
2025-01-07Apollon LimassolAris1. Division1-1
2024-09-21ArisApollon Limassol1. Division0-0
2024-01-14Apollon LimassolAris1. Division0-1
2023-09-30ArisApollon Limassol1. Division0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Aris vs Apollon Limassol odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.