Cyprus 1. Division
·
Full time
·Matchday 1
AEK Larnaca
vs
Apoel Nicosia
3 – 1 Full time
AEK Larnaca
65%
Draw
22%
Apoel Nicosia
13%
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia
| Probability | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Apoel Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.0% | 22.0% | 13.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 65.0% | 22.0% | 13.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why AEK Larnaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia expected goals
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
0.82
Total expected goals: 2.85
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia attack and defence ratings
AEK Larnaca
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Apoel Nicosia
Attack
0.71 -29%
Defence
1.27 +27%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia: result vs prediction
AEK Larnaca 3 – 1 Apoel Nicosia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 65.0% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Apoel Nicosia | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.5% |
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia stats
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia recent form
| AEK Larnaca |
WLWDDW |
| Apoel Nicosia |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6AEK Larnaca wins
3Draws
1Apoel Nicosia wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Apoel Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-22 | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Apoel Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-27 | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-02 | Apoel Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-20 | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Apoel Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-17 | AEK Larnaca | Apoel Nicosia | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2024-05-11 | Apoel Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.