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Czech Liga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové

1 – 0 Full time

60′D. Vasulin
65′D. LudvicekM. Valenta
65′T. SloncikA. Vlkanova
65′S. DancakA. Umar
66′B. KanakimanaA. Vanicek
66′P. SevcikP. Cavos
79′D. VasulinO. Velich
79′D. TrubacE. Neto
80′F. VedralA. Dante
84′T. VachousekD. Granecny

Mestsky Fotbalovy Stadion Srbska, BrnoReferee: Daniel Lovetinsky, Czechia

Zbrojovka Brno 45%
Draw 28%
Hradec Králové 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
39 Possession % 61
3 Corners 2
9 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 2
279 Accurate passes 513

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityZbrojovka BrnoDrawHradec Králové
Model58.1%25.7%16.1%
Market40.4%28.1%31.5%
Final44.8%27.5%27.6%
Edge+17.8%-2.4%-15.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Zbrojovka Brno

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.80.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Zbrojovka Brno below the model: +17.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Zbrojovka Brno ↓ / Hradec Králové → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 13% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 9%

Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové expected goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1.72
Hradec Králové 0.80

Total expected goals: 2.53

Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové attack and defence ratings

Zbrojovka Brno

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Hradec Králové

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové: result vs prediction

Zbrojovka Brno 1 – 0 Hradec Králové

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Czech Liga

Before and after this match

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zbrojovka Brno 44.8% 2.23 +17.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.7% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score No 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.9% 2.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Zbrojovka Brno44.8%
Draw27.5%
Hradec Králové27.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.3%
Under 2.553.7%
Both teams to scoreYes46.5%
No53.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.4%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)55.2%
Handicap -1Zbrojovka Brno win33.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.7%
Loss41.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-012.7%
1-112.2%
2-011.9%

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové stats

Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové recent form

newest first
Zbrojovka Brno WWLDWW
Hradec Králové LLDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové going into this match

league record before kick-off

Zbrojovka Brno record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Hradec Králové record

  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

3Zbrojovka Brno wins 1Draws 3Hradec Králové wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-11-12Zbrojovka BrnoHradec KrálovéCup0-3
2023-04-08Zbrojovka BrnoHradec KrálovéCzech Liga1-2
2022-10-15Hradec KrálovéZbrojovka BrnoCzech Liga2-1
2020-06-18Hradec KrálovéZbrojovka BrnoFNL1-1
2019-09-28Zbrojovka BrnoHradec KrálovéFNL2-1
2019-05-07Zbrojovka BrnoHradec KrálovéFNL2-0
2018-10-27Hradec KrálovéZbrojovka BrnoFNL0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 28.1%, away 31.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.24 3.30 2.95
1xBet 2.30 3.24 3.04
Bet365 2.30 3.30 2.80
BetVictor 2.25 3.25 2.90
Betano 2.35 3.30 2.87
Betfair 2.20 3.50 3.00
Dafabet 2.37 3.40 3.00
Marathonbet 2.28 3.24 3.02
Pinnacle 2.37 3.23 3.16
SBO 2.21 3.02 2.72
Superbet 2.32 3.30 2.95
Unibet 2.20 3.30 3.00
William Hill 2.30 3.10 2.88

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.30
X 3.30 —
2 2.95 ▲ +0.20

6 snapshots recorded, from .