Třinec
vs
Karviná
3 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | J. Selnar | ||
| 40′ | R. Breite | ||
| 46′ | C. AgboM. Samiec | ||
| 46′ | A. NguyenR. Dedic | ||
| 52′ | O. Conde | ||
| 56′ | A. KronusJ. Chytry | ||
| 61′ | R. Dedic | ||
| 65′ | N. ZinhasovicO. Machuca | ||
| 68′ | J. PiraF. Konate | ||
| 68′ | D. SamkoA. Markovic | ||
| 68′ | R. BreiteA. Kone | ||
| 69′ | L. Cienciala | ||
| 78′ | R. Dedic | ||
| 86′ | L. CiencialaM. Cerny | ||
| 88′ | M. AbdoulkarimL. Dadak | ||
| 89′ | L. Dadak | ||
| 89′ | J. SelnarM. Yahaya | ||
| 90′ | O. Machuca |
Třinec vs Karviná overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Třinec vs Karviná
| Probability | Třinec | Draw | Karviná |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.3% | 25.3% | 46.5% |
| Market | 18.7% | 23.1% | 58.2% |
| Final | 21.1% | 23.6% | 55.3% |
| Edge | +9.6% | +2.2% | -11.7% |
Why Karviná
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Třinec and Karviná expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Třinec and Karviná attack and defence ratings
Třinec
Karviná
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Třinec vs Karviná: result vs prediction
Třinec 3 – 2 Karviná
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Třinec vs Karviná markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karviná | 55.3% | 1.81 | -11.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Třinec | 21.1% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Karviná | 55.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Karviná win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Třinec vs Karviná stats
Třinec and Karviná recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Třinec and Karviná going into this match
Třinec record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
Karviná record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Třinec vs Karviná head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-28 | Karviná | Třinec | FNL | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-30 | Třinec | Karviná | FNL | 0-3 |
| 2020-08-15 | Karviná | Třinec | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2020-05-16 | Třinec | Karviná | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Třinec vs Karviná odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.1%, draw 23.2%, away 57.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.57 |
| 1xBet | 4.87 | 3.92 | 1.56 |
| 888Sport | 4.60 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.70 | 3.95 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 4.10 | 1.61 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 3.92 | 1.54 |
| Pinnacle | 4.73 | 4.06 | 1.57 |
| Superbet | 4.55 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .