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Liga Pro · ·Relegation Group - 6

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Mushuc Runa SC

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mushuc Runa SC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Mushuc Runa SC

Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, AmbatoReferee: Robert Cabrera

Mushuc Runa SC 50%
Draw 26%
Delfin SC 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Mushuc Runa SC wins
50%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMushuc Runa SCDrawDelfin SC
Model36.8%26.6%36.6%
Market55.0%25.3%19.7%
Final50.5%25.6%23.9%
Edge-4.6%+0.3%+4.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (our 50.5% × 1.70 − 1).

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC match preview

Mushuc Runa SC faces Delfin SC in an upcoming Liga Pro match, with Mushuc Runa SC holding a 50% probability of winning, while Delfin SC stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Mushuc Runa SC, which has an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for both teams are closely matched, with Mushuc Runa SC at 1.50 and Delfin SC at 1.49.

In terms of recent form, Mushuc Runa SC has struggled, recording five games without a win (L-L-D-L-D-L), while Delfin SC has shown better performance with three wins in their last six matches (W-L-W-W-D-D). The model suggests a 57% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score, indicating a potentially competitive match.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mushuc Runa SC ↓ / Delfin SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 6% 12% 8% 2 8% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC expected goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1.50
Delfin SC 1.49

Total expected goals: 2.99

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC attack and defence ratings

Mushuc Runa SC

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Delfin SC

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Relegation Group - 6 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mushuc Runa SC 50.5% 1.98 -4.6% 1.70
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.4% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.3% 1.63 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.1% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.2% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mushuc Runa SC50.5%
Draw25.6%
Delfin SC23.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%
Both teams to scoreYes61.3%
No38.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.1%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)49.5%
Handicap -1Mushuc Runa SC win18.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss63.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
2-18.4%
1-28.4%
Compare prices for this pick

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC stats

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC recent form

newest first
Mushuc Runa SC LLDLDL
Delfin SC WLWWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mushuc Runa SC and Delfin SC season so far

league record

Mushuc Runa SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Delfin SC record

  • They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Mushuc Runa SC wins 1Draws 5Delfin SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-09Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-2
2026-08-28Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro1-0
2026-05-03Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro1-0
2025-06-15Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-1
2025-02-18Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2024-11-08Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro4-2
2024-05-19Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro5-0
2023-09-16Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2023-04-16Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-0
2022-09-25Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Mushuc Runa SC vs Delfin SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 25.3%, away 19.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.68 3.68 4.91
Bet365 1.67 3.50 5.25
Betano 1.70 3.65 4.90
Betfair 1.70 3.80 4.60
Dafabet 1.69 3.65 4.70
Marathonbet 1.61 3.52 4.70
Pinnacle 1.69 3.81 4.70
SBO 1.60 3.23 4.25
William Hill 1.65 3.40 4.40
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.68 —
X 3.65 ▼ -0.09
2 4.70 ▲ +0.10

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Mushuc Runa SC Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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