Gnistan
vs
VPS
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gnistan
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Gnistan vs VPS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gnistan vs VPS
| Probability | Gnistan | Draw | VPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 24.8% | 14.3% |
| Market | 46.4% | 24.6% | 29.0% |
| Final | 50.0% | 24.6% | 25.3% |
| Edge | +3.6% | +0.1% | -3.7% |
Why Gnistan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
- The market prices Gnistan below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.0% per unit staked (our 50.0% × 2.10 − 1).
Gnistan vs VPS match preview
Gnistan is set to face VPS in the Veikkausliiga, with a kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Gnistan holds a 52% probability of winning, while VPS has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of Gnistan, occurring with a 16% probability. The expected goals for Gnistan are 1.39, compared to 0.71 for VPS.
In terms of recent form, Gnistan has recorded three draws and three losses in their last six matches, while VPS has two draws and four losses, with one win. The head-to-head record over the last ten encounters shows an even split, with both teams securing three wins each and four matches ending in draws. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gnistan and VPS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Gnistan and VPS attack and defence ratings
Gnistan
VPS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gnistan vs VPS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 50.0% | 2.00 | +3.6% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 50.0% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| VPS | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gnistan win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Gnistan vs VPS stats
Gnistan and VPS recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gnistan and VPS season so far
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
VPS record
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).
Gnistan vs VPS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-18 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-23 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-04 | Gnistan | VPS | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | VPS | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2021-10-16 | Gnistan | VPS | Ykkönen | 1-4 |
| 2021-07-18 | Gnistan | VPS | Ykkönen | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gnistan vs VPS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 24.6%, away 29.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.65 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 4.08 | 3.28 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.26 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .