HJK Helsinki
vs
AC Oulu
Garuda Lions Prediction: HJK Helsinki
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.07.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — HJK Helsinki is the favourite, not a value bet.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu
| Probability | HJK Helsinki | Draw | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 21.1% | 16.2% |
| Market | 81.6% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Final | 76.9% | 13.8% | 9.3% |
| Edge | -4.7% | +2.4% | +2.3% |
Why HJK Helsinki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.23 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (our 76.9% × 1.17 − 1).
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu match preview
HJK Helsinki faces AC Oulu in a Veikkausliiga clash, with the model favoring HJK Helsinki at 56% to win, while a draw is at 23% and AC Oulu at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% probability. HJK Helsinki has shown solid recent form with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while AC Oulu has a mixed record, winning three and losing two of their last five.
The expected goals for HJK Helsinki stand at 2.08, compared to AC Oulu's 1.21, indicating a stronger offensive output from the home side. Additionally, there is a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 62% chance that both teams will score. Historically, HJK Helsinki has dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning seven out of the last ten meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu attack and defence ratings
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Championship Group - 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 76.9% | 1.30 | -4.7% | 1.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 76.9% |
| Draw | 13.8% | |
| AC Oulu | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 23.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 37.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu stats
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu recent form
| HJK Helsinki |
WWDWWW |
| AC Oulu |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HJK Helsinki and AC Oulu season so far
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 17 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AC Oulu record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 3-4 |
| 2026-08-09 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-14 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-21 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Suomen Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-20 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-4 |
| 2024-07-27 | HJK Helsinki | AC Oulu | Veikkausliiga | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-31 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | AC Oulu | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 81.6%, draw 11.4%, away 7.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.12 | 8.20 | 15.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 8.50 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.12 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.17 | 7.20 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.16 | 8.40 | 15.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.12 | 8.20 | 15.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.14 | 9.44 | 13.50 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 6.57 | 10.12 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .